Ask the IntoMobile Magic 8-Ball – What is the future of mobile phones?
By Will Park on Friday, December 7th, 2007 at 4:00 PM PST In Blog Updates
It’s been bugging me for a pretty good while. Why do I love the Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) iPhone so damn much? Coming from the Windows Mobile camp (I used to be a hardcore WinMo fan – still am, just not as hardcore), and even having dabbled in the world of Nokia (NYSE: NOK), I’ve been used to having the latest and greatest when it comes to hardware features – 3G, autofocusing cameras with incredible optics, WiFi, GPS, slide-out QWERTY keyboards, expandable memory, more third-party applications than I knew what to do with…the list goes on and on. So, why the hell do I love this iPhone that doesn’t even have MMS capability (not to mention the lack of video recording, expandable memory, or, most importantly, 3G)? I’m constantly defending this damn phone from the likes of, well, everyone. They flout their phone’s features as being superior to the iPhone. It’s always badass camera this, 3G data that.
Anyway, I digress.
I recently attended an interesting panel discussion regarding monetization strategies for anyone in the mobile industry, and Doppelganger CEO Tim Stevens, mentioned that the user interface is key to attracting users and helps drive online revenue in the mobile space. So, that got me thinking – does the mobile phone UI play a key role in attracting consumers? The answer I arrived at was, yes – at least in the coming years. Currently, attention is focused on hardware, but the future of the mobile industry is the UI. Let me explain.
As mobile phones become more powerful and packed to the gills with features (which is a good thing, by the way – viva la convergence!), all manufacturers will eventually have to offer the same features if they want to keep up with eachother. High-megapixel cameras, GPS, WiFi, mobile broadband, email, music – any manufacturer worth their salt in today’s market already has a device that offers most, if not all, of these high-end features. So, if hardware specs start to become more homogenized across the board, what aspect of the mobile experience will consumers base their purchase decisions upon? The answer is, the UI.
Sure, there will always be the low and mid-range devices that don’t offer every feature available on the market (keep in mind that as the industry advances, the low and mid-range phones will incorporate features that were once considered “high-end”), but these handset offerings will ride the wave that the high-end devices create.
So, what comprises the UI and why is it so damn important? Well, for the purpose of this argument, the UI is defined as the way you navigate through the devices features, hardware (or software) that allows you to input information, and the on-screen visuals. The UI will become increasingly more important as the consumer starts to demand a more cohesive, intuitive, and enjoyable user experience.
Now, this isn’t just an Apple fanboy’s declaration of love for the iPhone. As great as the virtual keyboard is, there is a steep learning curve (but I’ve gotten faster and more accurate on the iPhone keyboard than I had ever been on a hard-keyboard). I actually miss video recording (at least on my iPhone). GPS would be nice. But, to tell you the truth, I never really used MMS, and I don’t miss it.
I love my Windows Mobile devices (high-end feature sets, QWERTY keyboard, and touchscreen), and I have to admit that the Nokia N95 rocks for creating high-res photos and videos (despite shutter and shot-to-shot lag). Checking email on the iPhone is easy. Playing music is a breeze. Surfing the internet is an incredible joy (EDGE isn’t fast, but in real-world use it doesn’t slow-down the browsing experience that much – seriously, pages loaded slower on my AT&T (NYSE: T) Tilt and took just as long on the Nokia N95. I’m usually not editing word documents nor taking pictures/videos – so my iPhone is my day-to-day phone. So, what makes the the iPhone such a joy to use? It’s not the Apple logo. It’s not the exterior looks (I actually prefer the AT&T Tilt’s design). It’s the user experience, defined by the user interface – it’s the UI!
The UI is the future, and manufacturers are starting to realize that fact. Nokia is going with a touch-based S60. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) just bought a 50% stake in UIQ. Samsung has Croix. Apple has the iPhone. And therein lies the key to why the iPhone is such a success. The user interface on the iPhone is un-rivaled. Sure, it’s lacking in the hardware department, but Apple will eventually get it together and offer the same hardware specs that we’ve come to expect from high-end phones. But, the UI. Wow, the UI is incredible.
In that regard, Apple is ahead of the curve and the rest of the industry is going to play catch-up. Which is an easier task? Designing an incredible UI (which is largely based on subjective factors) or figuring out how to incorporate new hardware (which is merely a matter of sorting out the technical bits)? I would argue that developing an appealing UI is the more difficult task.
But then, there’s the issue of price. Most non-enthusiasts that I talk to love the iPhone, but the price is the major deterrent. On the flip-side, cost usually isn’t as big an issue with enthusiasts – and that bunch usually knocks the iPhone for lack of features. This isn’t an aspect of future-consumer decisions that I’ve put too much thought into, but I tend to think that the entire market will be driven by consumers that demand more out of their UI.
Now, you might disagree (and that’s what why we have a comments section), but mark my words. Consumers will be looking more towards the UI and less towards what hardware features are available. iPhone 2.0, here I come!
Excellent analysis Will, I tend to agree with most of your thoughts here.
People these days are less impressed with features and more impressed with friendliness, and that’s exactly how it should be. I can’t think of anybody who can compete with Apple for the foreseeable future. We may as well get used to living in a world where Apple have a large share of the phone market. I for one, feel much more comfortably with Apple keeping Nokia on their toes, it should lead to much faster innovation in the industry . . . as your article pointed out.
couldn’t agree more..
Exactly, James. In the end, we (the consumer) will be the ones to benefit.
The Apple UI is actually very plain, once you strip away the glitzy effects. No new paradigms, little app integration, missing copy/paste, etc.
Other phone UIs suffered from having to support touchless devices as well, something Apple did not have to do.
But now lots of third parties giving Windows Mobile better touch navigation, Nokia is seeing the light, etc.
The iPhone has done everyone a great service by pointing out that simple, but entertaining, is a good UI on a phone.
@Kevin: Hmm, I’m not so sure that Apple haven’t introduced a new paradigm – the multi touch, gesture based UI has not been seen in a phone before the iPhone, surely that’s a new pattern or paradigm. When we look back on 2007/2008 I think it’ll be pretty clear that Apple distributed the industry on quite a number of levels.
I think for another less than 2 years UI won’t play that of a big role, but after definitely when they run out of possible features to add to a cellphone…
I agree totally Will, Apple have shaken up the market, its a great thing for the consumers. Lets hope that the older players get their acts together – they need to combine simplicity and ease of use with their huge functionality as well as making their GUI’s sexy – that is absolutely key (As well as removing as many bugs as possible). Apple have made a ‘wow’ factor GUI, and as you say it does seem to work (at lease in the US anyway). Lets hope UIQ, S60 touch and Windows Mobile (less so, I cant stand the WM OS;)) can change and compete.
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About multitouch – I really dont think it is that much of an overwhelming feature. You dont actually use it that much when using an iphone/touch. Yes it looks great but in it current state doesnt offer much more than can be done with one hand. ie when navigating a webpage or looking at photos I find the double tap more convienient.
I really wish i was articulate enough to put together my thoughts into a fine article like yours that details how very flawed your view of things are. I’ve never been good at writing essays.
I really wish you would visit more technology conferences like the recent Symbian Smartphone Show in London, where apart from S6O’s new touch UI that many have ridiculed as an iphone clone (which puzzles me since this company is actually trying to improve things and yet the multitudes are stifling their efforts with derogatory comments to the fact), there are so many fantastic technologies under the hood that would make the next year in mobile tech a very interesting and innovative one.
Its so easy for a UI to look clean and easy when it doesn’t have to deal with many things going on under the hood. You have less options to set, less things to play around with and optimize to different preferences.
When you start adding multiple abilities to a small device, the UI has to account for the many things the hardware can accomplish, so it inevitably starts to become abit jumbled and untidy.
Now that said, its no excuse, and its just plain laziness on the designers part. The single most important thing that the iphone has done is to show that all those ideas, concepts they had on the drawing board are ready for the limelight, and the end users can handle them. Its not that the iphone is better, its that apple had the balls to bring something quite new that folks weren’t used to….though of course, the brand power helped to convince the many generations brought up around that name.
Anyone can make a fine UI that works very well with its intended hardware and in turn makes it easy to use, many have already for other devices. I’m not so closed minded and one sided to believe that one company has the best stock of designers and crew, when i have seen others in my many years produce stunning examples.
The technology is there now and frankly i see at least the major manufacturers like Nokia and Sony catching up within the year. They have the drive, they have the skill, and they have shareholders that require them to claw back their notoriety.
So please, don’t block your minds, your eyes to what is there. Technology need to advance and features are incredibly important. This is a field that doesn’t need to be dumbed down, but rather moved further and opened up. Just because you don’t have use for a certain feature does not mean there aren’t multitudes of others that have used and will still use it.
The UI is the future, and it will catch up before you know it. I have great faith in the abilities of the individuals at work behind the scenes, and now they have seen the way to do it, the hidden concepts that were once deemed to far out and expensive to develop, will now finally come forth.
So bring on the iphone 2.0, it will be in fine company.
I haven’t even mentioned emerging markets and multiple device strategies of these other well weathered companies that statistics seem to look over to equate true success.
So please don’t be so shortsighted about the industry as whole.
p.s… this is just an unedited, rough, reactionary snippet of my thoughts on this issue and there is alot more i could say. I’m not on one side, but more against the hyperbole of the iphone and worrying sense that many of the blogs and tech writers i once deemed knowledgeable and impartial, just gushing on this one device and missing the point entirely. Plus they are also just using the name to get more page hits and advertising. I mean no personal offense.
You said you wanted comments.
I know it seems logical that the furious efforts of cellphone manufacturers and carriers to equal the iPhone UI will catch up to the iPhone within a year.
For twenty years, with Macs I have been empowered to do things my fellow engineers, managers and attorneys did not do. They always chorus “My PC ‘can’ also do that” or “You can also do that with Windows on a PC”.
But they didn’t…and mostly, they still don’t. It is just too much to learn, too complicated, and they never get around to “doing” it on their PCs.
So, the non-Apple companies will not quickly catch up, because they really don’t get it. It’s not features and it’s not “cheapest”. It IS Useability, learnibility (without manuals), simplicity, user-friendliness, pleasure of use, quick learning curve, compatability with your “family” of devices, and customer service.
They won’t catch up well at all…ever. And when they do…Apple will have moved on two generations ahead. It is due to Apple’s dedication (matching their fans enthusiasm) for make things simpler, easier and improving the user experience. Other corporate philosophies are obsolete.
hardmanb – lets revisit this post in a years time, I suspect you might have egg on your face. You assume that Apple is so far ahead of the game with their iphone OS, which is patently wrong. Yes they have the useability – but so have Symbian, they get that, this is why Symbian handsets have done so well in the past.
Its such one sided closed minded views that dont help folks take you seriously at all. Just makes one look like a troll/tool.
See it from all sides, open your mind and maybe things will be better.
Not directed at you Chris P.
ihypetired,
First let me address the issue of your concern over various blogs “gushing” about the iPhone. As with any new product, the iPhone (by which I refer to the design, UI, and “emotional” draw) is getting coverage because it is new. I did not use the iPhone in the title to get page hits, I intended this article to be something of a “time capsule.” Looking back in a couple years, I’m interested to see how the mobile industry has developed. And, what is the point that is being missed? The iPhone is (currently) the best UI out there (and I know that is a subjective statement, but I stand by it), which is the reason that it’s both my personal fav as well as the measuring stick for future UI’s. This doesn’t mean the iPhone will always enjoy the limelight that it currently receives, and we actually hope that other companies will develop ever more innovative approaches to the UI.
The issue here is not the technology. The technology is irrelevant because, as far as the big-dogs are concerned, the playing field is level – everyone has basically the same technical know-how (I presume Apple also has the know-how but just lacks real-world experience to execute high-technology in the iPhone – iPhone 2.0 anyone?). The issue at hand is the subjective side of the equation – ie, the user experience which is derived from the UI. The iPhone gets attention because its “slick” for lack of a better word.
This statement is what worries me:
“Anyone can make a fine UI that works very well with its intended hardware and in turn makes it easy to use, many have already for other devices. ”
I would argue that making a decent, usable, and effective UI is within any manufacturer/developer’s reach. But, effectiveness and competency do not a good UI make. Any UI can get the job done, and it’s fine as long as the user can navigate and execute their tasks within the UI. The mark of a real, stand-out, exceptional UI is the cohesive and intuitive user experience. Windows Mobile, for instance (which I love, by the way), is a perfect example of a UI that is effective and competent (if not always stable, but that’s another issue – a memory handling issue, specifically), but falls flat in the user experience department. WinMo lacks an intuitive feel. Sure, you can do a lot by drilling down through menus and options, but that detracts from a cohesive “feel.”
When you say that:
“Its so easy for a UI to look clean and easy when it doesn’t have to deal with many things going on under the hood. You have less options to set, less things to play around with and optimize to different preferences.” (this reminds me of the classic Mac vs PC debate – which is, for the most-part, unfounded)
It just highlights the fact that many iPhone-detractors have not had enough seat-time with the iPhone to understand or accept its strengths. The Ui is clean and easy, but the iPhone can be customized in many different ways. To that end, a good UI will avoid option-overload in an effort to make the user-experience a more enjoyable one. Who cares what proxy server setting is being used if the connection just works (you can specify proxy servers on the iPhone, by the way – which again highlights my presumption that many iPhone detractors have not had the hands-on experience with the device to make a solid decision).
I don’t want to keep babbling, so I’ll end this response with one sentence.
Coming from the hard-core WinMo camp, I was close-minded to any Nokia products (Symbian). So, when I started using them (so that my perspectives on the mobile space are based on experience and not assumptions) I was quick to point out the wrongs and downfalls of this Nokia or that Nokia device. But, as soon as I ditched my biases and started objectively analyzing the strengths of different devices, Nokia devices (N95 especially) really struck me as truly remarkable devices. The lesson? Ditch prejudices and analyze objectively – the mark of a true enthusiast in any field.
OK, that was more than one sentence, my bad
disclaimer: I think it’s important to note that I do NOT think the iPhone is perfect in the hardware department (it’s far outclassed by other devices), the issue here is the UI. Furthermore, I am not out to bash anyone’s position or opinion. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and that’s a good thing. I’ll shut up now.
@ihype: I do see things from both sides – but that does not mean that I should have equal praise for both sides. For me, at the end of 2007, Apple are doing a much more promising job of convincing me that they know how to make the phone that I want to own in 2008. That’s it, there really is nothing more to it than that. I’m gushing, I’m not caught up in the hype . . .
Now if that’s a problem for Nokia then clearly they need to work harder at convincing me otherwise. You seem to imply that it’s somehow my personal duty to develop faith in Nokia. No, it’s Nokia’s job to CLEARLY demonstrate their future abilities to me. I have reason to believe that Nokia have what it takes to match Apple next year, that’s not my fault, it’s theirs. I see no reason why I should not be allowed to call it as I see it.
Simplicity is everything. Nobody wants to click through endless menues and submenues. So I guess the future UI will be very slick , less text-oriented ( gooooooo pictogramms ) and easy to navigate.
Maybe they’ll come up with some smart UI that anticipates what you want to do.
As far as touch-interface goes I think it is just an interlude to gesture control via your camera or some other sensoric input. Face it people, human fingers are greasy and I can’t see myself polishing my mobile device all the time.
btw i used the iphone for two solid weeks quite exclusively, so i understand its workings. Personally i found it too cold and clinical, but fun to flick
“Ditch prejudices and analyze objectively – the mark of a true enthusiast in any field.”
Thats, for the most part, all i ask. I doubt anyone sane would think that one company should dominate, patents or not, and that the other companies that have had this field for years would sit and fold their arms.
Even Winmo are finally gradually stepping up to the plate aand doing something about that staid technical UI. HTC Touch and Winmo 6.1, though not great leaps, but a step in the right direction. Hopefully they will colaborate more with the Zune team.
Nokia and Sonyericcson will make more of an impact because they understand this fast moving field and each are already making strides in the UI concept. The technologies alone behind the new Symbian UI is greatly impressive….if you believe the video demos.
Android working with Synaptic? Awesome. I see good things from them too as long as the licensees make good on the hardware. Still early days of course.
Multi-touch is the true innovation here. Its great. I applaud apple for being the first to apply it to a mass produced, pocket size device. They wont be the last.
Its going to be an interesting new year in the mobile/cell tech world.
I completely agree. These days, the basic phone comes on a chip, and the hardware that bring the features are a commodity.
One reason why we all love the i-phone UI is because everything else is so boring or impractical to navigate. Due to the oligopolies, there has been this quiet collusion to not rock the boat.
Enter Apple, and now the other will have to innovate. Their UIs have to catch up to the huge feature set their PDA-phones now have.