Juniper Research: Mobile music revenues to approach $18 billion by 2012
By Dusan Belic on Friday, January 11th, 2008 at 12:40 PM PST In Content, Research
According to a new report from Juniper Research “Mobile Music Services: Ringtones, Ringback Tones and Original Recordings (4th edition),” subscription-based music rental services are expected to surge in popularity reaching $3.3 billion by 2012.
Report author Dr Windsor Holden suggests that once consumers have taken the time and effort to build up an extensive playlist, they will be increasingly reluctant to unsubscribe from that service and from the operator, thereby providing a significant boost to the ARPU levels.
However, the report also states that as 3G services are rolled out in emerging markets, then full-track download sales will mushroom, with the volume of downloads in India alone rising from less than 2 million in 2007 to nearly 480 million in 2012.
Other findings from the Juniper report include:
- The global market for end-user generated mobile music revenues will rise from $8.9 billion in 2007 to nearly $17.6 billion in 2012
- Total revenues from original recordings delivered to the handset will increase from $960 million in 2007 to $6.1 billion in 2012
- Revenues from ringtones will peak in 2010, subsequently declining as a result of competitive pricing allied to a steady migration to ad-funded and/or self-created ringtones
- Finally — and we’ve no idea how much that’s actually relevant — the report praises the iPhone’s UI, but argues that Apple (NSDQ: AAPL)’s decision to eschew 3G in favour of a greater battery life was incorrect
If you want to know more, white papers and further details of the study are available on Juniper’s website.
That may be based on some facts that m’ still unknown of, but I think it’s a bit unrealistic at Juniper’s end!
Digital music in the United States will increase from $1.98 billion in 2007 to $5.34 billion in 2012 according to the Yankee Group, but mobile will only account for 20 percent of that, or $1.068 billion. Overall this will not replace lost CD revenue, but Yankee avoids the mistake of saying that the “music industry” is in trouble—it’s actually the record labels which are in trouble, and the analysts predicts that artists will increasingly keep the lion’s share of music revenues by selling directly to the consumer
It sounds good. Mobile content seems having a bright future.