ABI Research: Global GSM subscriber growth rate to slow in 2008 due to migration to 3G

ABI Research forecasts global GSM subscriber growth to slow from a year-on-year rate of over 22% in 2006/07 to 14% in 2008/09, mainly due to the increased migration of subscribers to UMTS 3G technologies. UMTS (including HSDPA) experienced a nearly 83% year-on-year growth rate in 2006/07, and the research company expects global GSM subscriber numbers to show a negative growth rate starting in 2013.

“Within the GSM subscriber population, EDGE is expected to maintain a high growth rate following increased deployments in emerging markets,” says Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Nonetheless, GSM (including EDGE and GPRS) is still expected to have the highest number of subscribers of all mobile technologies, with a 70% global market share in 2013 (dropping from 78% in 2007.)”

Other findings:

• W-CDMA (including HSDPA and HSPA) global market share is expected to increase from a little over 5% in 2007 to nearly 14% in 2013.
• CDMAone and iDEN subscribers are diminishing quickly, and by 2010 most of them will have migrated to either GSM or CDMA2000 networks.
• CDMA2000 (including EVDO) has not experienced as high growth rates as UMTS.

More information is available on ABI Research’s website.