Juniper Research: NFC-enabled mobile phones will generate $75 billion worth of payment transactions within 5 years

A new analysis of the NFC mobile payments opportunity forecasts that the gross transaction value of payments made via NFC for relatively low value purchases (i.e. refreshments, tickets and food) will exceed $75 billion globally by 2013.

In the second report in its “Mobile Payment Markets” series, Juniper Research found that there is a significant opportunity for all participants in the ecosystem — including mobile payment services, chips, phones and supporting services. According to Juniper, this market will reach its tipping point over the 2011 to 2013 period.

Report author Howard Wilcox said that NFC will achieve traction initially in developed countries and regions, with Japan already leading the way with FeliCa-enabled phones. “North America, Western Europe and countries such as Korea, Singapore and Australia are likely to see service take-up,” he added.

Highlights from the report:

• Global annual gross transaction value will grow over 5 times between 2011 and 2013.
• 2009 will see limited numbers of NFC devices shipped (except in the Far East & China region) but the market will begin to ramp up from 2010 onwards and by 2013, 20% of all phones shipped will possess NFC capability.
• The top 3 regions — Far East & China, North America and Western Europe — will represent nearly 90% of the $75 billion per year market by 2013.

However, Howard was cautions to say: “Whilst trial results so far have been encouraging, the industry as a whole will need to convince both consumers and merchants of the merits of yet another payment mechanism on top of cash, cheques, credit and debit cards, and to allay understandable (even if unfounded) fears and scepticism about the security of The Mobile Wallet.”