JupiterResearch: Wireless subscriber growth will slow between 2008 and 2013

JupiterResearch has found that wireless subscriber growth is slowing due to market saturation. The research company predicts U.S. carriers will add only 26 million new subscribers in the next five years to reach 266 million in 2013. Adoption by teens and young adults will become nearly ubiquitous as the majority of the demographic already have mobile phones, and 31% of parents with children ages 10 to 12 reported that their children also own mobile phones.

JupiterResearch’s report “US Wireless Forecast, 2008 to 2013: Reaching the Tipping Point for Mobile Data Services” suggests that mobile phones are “evolving from a one-to-one communication platform into a one-to-many platform” as online users migrate toward social networks as a center of communication. This transition will significantly impact the mobile data market.

Data access fees will soon represent the bulk of non-messaging data revenue for carriers. Sales of devices that are optimized for more than voice, and targeted toward consumers with lower price points, improved browsing experiences, and access to social networking services are on the rise. Moreover, widgets will become standard on basic feature phones, enabling users to engage with the Internet while avoiding the challenges of browsing on a small screen.

According to the lead author of the report, Julie Ask, the associated revenue of nearly $16 billion in 2013 will represent the largest portion of overall consumer data revenue.

David Schatsky, President of JupiterResearch, added: “Consumers’ increasing desire to access social applications such as Facebook on their cell phones, coupled with flat-rate pricing plans, will give carriers the opportunity to capitalize on this revenue shift.”

Finally we conclude – yap, mobile operators will turn into dumb pipes, whether they like it or not…