Informa: 5 billion mobile subscribers to generate $1 trillion in revenues by 2013
By Dusan Belic on Sunday, December 14th, 2008 at 6:35 AM PST In Research
According to Informa Telecoms & Media’s Global Mobile Forecasts, annual revenues from the global mobile market will top $1.03 trillion by 2013, and the number of subscriptions worldwide will rise to more than 5.3 billion. From end-2007 to end-2013, the global mobile market will increase in size by over half (56%) thus driving total annual revenues by over a third (33.9%) — from $769 billion in 2007 to $1.03 trillion six years later.
As expected, markets of Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America will be the powerhouses of organic growth over the next five years, with nearly half (47%) of the 1.9 billion global net adds to come from just five countries – India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia. By contrast, North America and Western Europe will in total contribute just 8% of global net adds, reflecting the high level of saturation in these markets.
Globally, subscription penetration will approach the 75% mark in 2013, while some countries will push past the 150% barrier: Romania (152%), Russia (153%), Italy (168%), Ukraine (173%) and Greece (183%). As a result, the global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers will increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013. In Western Europe, the ratio will reach 1.55 in 2013, and even higher (1.75) in Eastern Europe.
Informa’s research analyst Chris Stamatakis said: “Reductions in voice tariffs, the option of very low-denomination prepaid top-ups and the greater availability of cheap 2G and 2.5G handsets will open out mobile services to low-income, low-ARPU subscribers who have never previously owned a mobile phone.”
Voice revenues will continue to make up the lion’s share of total revenues, but will see slowing growth, and even a decline from 2010 onwards. Informa expects voice revenues to peak in 2009 in Western Europe, and even by end-2008 in North America. In developing markets such as the Middle East and Asia Pacific, voice revenues will not peak until 2011, and 2012 in Latin America and the Caribbean.
To keep annual revenues on the up, operators will need to promote usage of data services. Unlike voice, annual data revenues, will keep growing and will more than double from $148 billion in 2007 to $347 billion in 2013. This in turn will see the proportion of total revenues generated by data services increasing from less than a fifth (19.2%) in 2007 to over a third (33.7%) at the end of the forecast period…
As a conclusion – data services are the way of the future for both end-users and the operators. More information about Informa’s report is available from their website.
