Analyst: Palm Won’t Live to 2010
By Simon Sage on Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 10:26 AM PST In Financial/Corporate News, Palm, Palm Pre
Most folks are betting that Palm (NSDQ: PALM)’s hail-mary, last-ditch shot at survival will pay off, but folks from both 24/7 Wall Street and Motley Fool are saying that between the recession, Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) and RIM’s existing dominance, and Sprint (NYSE: S)’s sketchy track record, the Pre is a lost cause. That seems a little harsh by my estimation – at very least, the Pre will keep Palm alive for a little while longer than 2010, but who knows? If neither BlackBerry (NSDQ: RIMM) nor iPhone users are willing to jump ship, Palm will, indeed, need to tap into an unpenetrated market. To pull that off, publicity is going to be the biggest challenge, helped largely by celebrity sightings, but considering their initial efforts, Sprint is going to need to do a little more legwork to make their exclusive worthwhile.
[via ElectricPig]
I’ve said it a before in personal conversations with Stefan – the Pre will boost stuff for Palm quite a bit, but it’s not enough to sustain them.
Personally, here’s how I see this situation playing out:
1. Palm launches the pre sometime only shortly before the iPhone 3rd Generation (not to be confused with the iPhone 3G) launches in June. Also, shortly before the N97 launches. The N97 won’t be a big deal in the U.S., obviously, but will be elsewhere, with carrier support.
2. The Pre initially sells moderately. Nothing blockbuster, but not a ‘failure’, either.
3. The sales are not enough to keep the Palm stockholders happy, and some genius other company makes a bid for Palm (one would hope Nokia, but it could just as easily be RIM or someone else, I suppose)
4. The bid wins out, and WebOS dies, at least in its current form. Whatever brilliant company buys Palm also gets ahold of the genius UI/UX people that are nestled inside, and puts them to task in updating whatever OS the company currently has (or starts reworking WebOS).
I just don’t think the Pre is going to be enough to save Palm in the long term. By January, unless they have a GSM Pre ON THE SHELVES, and at least 2 more devices announced (not necessarily launched, but at least revealed), their goose is cooked. It’s just too cut-throat, specifically in the smartphone arena right now, for any one company to wallow without any sales.