Disqus
I can’t wrap my head over what has happened, both in the industry and in my personal life, over the past 12 months. I spent the first four months of 2009 in Helsinki, working for Nokia, but then I lost my job so I packed my bags and spent the next four months up north in Tampere where the cost of living is noticeably lower. That was a pretty epic vacation which ended up with me waking up in a holding cell with zero recollection of what happened the night before. The last four months of this year have brought me right back where I started, back in Helsinki, and back with IntoMobile. But enough about me, I know you could care less, what happened in mobile?
The industry saw Palm successfully build a tremendous amount of hype over the Pre and webOS, and then fail to deliver. The industry saw Apple launch a minor hardware upgrade to their iPhone with the help of ARM’s next generation Cortex A8 processor, and we’re only now seeing other players adopt the same technology. The industry saw Nokia continue to stumble their way into the services market, and fail to deliver a compelling a touch screen flagship device. RIM, who everyone continues to insult, calling their operating system older than the Roman empire, continues to gain market share at a furious rate. Android has grown up, but it’s still rough around the edges and very much limited to the high end of the market. The most important thing we saw this year, and you’re going to think I’m nuts for saying this, was the launch of TeliaSonera’s LTE network in Sweden. That network may only reach half a million people, but it’s a sign that operators all around the world will take note of and start rolling out their own next generation, fully IP based, low latency high speed networks.
What do we have to look forward to in 2010? Not much I’m afraid, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing! Like I said in November, the best smartphone you can buy this year is probably the one you already have in your pocket. With that in mind here is my list of 5 predictions:
- Thanks to an ever increasing amount of smartphones being sold today, Google now has the ability to provide rich and complex applications for your device, regardless of the operating system. In 2010 we’re going to see Google release a new version of their “Google Mobile” application that literally does everything so well that you never have to exit the application. You may end up buying a Windows Mobile, RIM, or Symbian handset, but once you install the “Google Mobile” application of 2010 you’re going to have a replacement for your contacts, calender, mapping, and even browser. Think of how HTC skins Windows Mobile and Android with their Sense UI, you’re going to see Google do the same thing.
- With HTC’s 2010 roadmap leak one of the things that immediately stood out was that most of their devices will be using the new Qualcomm MSM7227 processor. That’s a chip meant for making smartphone that retail for under $150. That isn’t to say HTC is going to start selling their mobile phones for $150, but they are looking to increase their market share; lowering their prices and maintaining the margin they have today is how they’ll achieve that goal. The same will be done by everyone else. In 2009 we saw smartphones with GPS, WiFi and 5 megapixel cameras hit $400; just two years ago something like that cost over $600. In 2010 we’re going to see smartphones that we consider today to be “high end” hitting the $300 and even $200 mark. Operators are noticing that data revenue is increasing and the only way to make it rise faster is to offer smartphones to their customers. One in three people will end up owning a smartphone by the end of next year, but sadly the smartphones of 2010 will be nothing more than the smartphones of 2009, except in different packaging with different colour plastic.
- Related to the prediction above, in 2010 we’re not going to see any “flagship” devices. In 2009 you could say that Nokia’s flagship was the N97, Apple’s was the iPhone 3GS, Android has the Motorola Droid/Milestone, but if I had to pick only one device to call the “flagship of the year” it would probably be the iPhone 3GS. The industry, during the next 12 months, is not going to make anything more advanced than what we have today, they’re simply going to catch up to the iPhone 3GS that was launched this summer. The flagship of 2010 was concepted back in 2008, a year when everyone thought everything would go to hell due to Wall Street taking a shit on America. People knew the economy was going to hell, but no one knew how well mobile telecoms would take the impact. At one point Nokia said that 2009 mobile phone shipments would drop over 10%, but that number is actually turning out to be 0.6% and may get even smaller, or even turn to positive growth, once Q409 sales figures come out in January.
- What’s Apple going to do in 2010? I can’t see them upgrading the processor to something like the ARM Cortex A9, it would be too soon. I also can’t see them rolling out their own custom chip made by the team they acquired with the purchase of P.A. Semi, because again, it’s way too soon. What I can see is Apple introducing an iPhone with NFC capabilities. Nokia has already confirmed that they plan to get into NFC in pretty big way in 2010, and I predict Apple will do the same thing. The next iPhone will have the same sized screen, same resolution, same processor, same everything, but it will have an NFC chip in the back. No one is really going to take full advantage of NFC in 2010 since penetration will be low, and developers need time to get bright ideas beyond that of mobile payments and sharing contact information, but I’m betting that if you buy a high end smartphone this time next year, chances are it will have NFC.
- The space that I like to call “embedded connectivity” will grow dramatically and force operators to form separate business units to deal with new types of customers. Think of the Kindle and the Nook, both electronic books, both with built in cellular access. In 2010 we’re going to see more devices like that hit the market. Not just electronic books, but other consumer electronics, and devices such as power meters that can report, in real time, how much electricity you’re using. AT&T has already created an “Emerging Devices” business unit, headed by Glenn Lurie. I wrote an article about this very topic in June for Vision Mobile and I truely believe that in 2010 we’re going to see it become important. Operators today want to own too much. They want to own the consumer experience, they want to own the billing relationship, they want everything you do that involves dollars and cents to flow through them. Once they realize that they’re nothing but pipes, and that they can sell a pipe to companies looking to connect everything to the internet, then you’re going to see the embedded connectivity space blow up. It’ll happen towards the end of 2010 as operators look at their bottom line and realize they need more money to build a brand spanking new LTE network.
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Inshard
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Ricardo
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Gregg
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Tom
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Jouni Miettunen
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IT Specialist
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Stefan Constantinescu
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Crystal Ball
That’s it! I hope you enjoy your holiday and new year! Don’t forget to leave a comment below, whether you want to kiss my ass or call me a bumbling idiot, your opinion matters.
About The Author
Stefan Constantinescu
Stefan Constantinescu (@WhatTheBit on Twitter) has loved technology since as far back as he can remember. It started with computers, but in the past few years his passion has turned to mobile devices. As a mobile phone enthusiast who lives and breathes devices that connect to the internet, he knows he is not alone with this radical fascination of all things wireless. He is strongly opinionated and enjoys a good debate so leave comments in his posts and he’ll get back to you! Stefan began blogging as a hobby in the fall of 2006 and joined IntoMobile in the summer of 2007. Later he got a job at Nokia in March 2008, but as of June 2009 he has rejoined the IntoMobile team. He is currently based out of Helsinki, Finland.
