In its five-year fiscal report for the top wireless carriers in the US, IE Market Research predicted that AT&T will overtake Verizon Wireless as the nation’s largest wireless carrier. The report cites AT&T’s increasing growth rate and Verizon’s falling growth rate for this leadership change which is expected to occur in 2011. Much of this momentum is attributed to AT&T’s enviable position as the exclusive carrier of the Apple iPhone in the US.
In the next five years, both AT&T and Verizon Wireless are expected to see increases in the numbers of subscribers and market share. In 2014, AT&T is predicted to have 127 million mobile subscribers or 34.8% market share; while Verizon Wireless is predicted to take the runner-up position with 118.7 million mobile subscribers or 32.5% market share. The forecast is not so rosy for Sprint which, despite a strong Q2 2010, is expected to continue to lose subscribers to its larger rivals and will retain only a 13% market share by 2014.
Though interesting, this study fails to take into account the influence of Android on the future of this mobile landscape. Android is exploding and, as the primary carrier for Android handsets in the US, Verizon Wireless is riding this tidal wave of success. The study also presumes AT&T will enjoy the bounty that the iPhone offers over the next five years. Though AT&T is unconcerned, the wireless carrier may lose its competitive edge if Verizon launches an iPhone in 2011 as rumored.
Now that IEMR has had its turn with the crystal ball, it is now your turn to do some predicting. Hit us up in the comments and let us know what you think the wireless carrier landscape will look like in five years from now. Will AT&T be number one or will Verizon retain its lead? What about Sprint and T-Mobile, will they still be in the game or will the two carriers be forced to merge to stay alive?
[Via IEMR and Electronista]