Despite the release of the Lumia 900, industry analysts are still painting a dark picture when it comes to Windows Phone’s 2012 outlook. Market research company ABI Research claims that the Windows Phone platform will only account for 2% of the estimated 36 billion applications downloaded in 2012. Though this represents nearly double Windows Phone’s 2011 share, it shows the mountainous hurdle Windows Phone must climb to become a major player.
It could be well into 2013 before Windows Phone greatly increases its market share, as developers are awaiting the Windows Phone 8 update before deciding whether to develop applications for the Windows Phone platform. Microsoft expects to release Windows Phone 8 in the fall, so we likely won’t see some of the notably missing Windows Phone applications creeping out until Q4 2012 or Q1 2013.
If the analyst projections hold, Windows Phone will take the #5 spot, behind iOS, Android, Blackberry, and Symbian for 2012, though we expect them to vault into #4 or even #3 when the 2013 report comes out this time next year. One thing is clear, however, Microsoft has a long road ahead of it if it’s going to become a major platform.