IDC: Android at its peak, will fall while Windows Phone climbs

Research firm IDC released its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report today. It predicts that Android market share is at its peak right now, but Windows Phone will continue to grow mostly at its expense. Seriously, that’s what it said.

“The smartphone parade won’t be as lively this year as it has been in past,” said IDC analyst Kevin Restivo. He’s referring to IDC’s forecast of 1.8 billion mobile phone shipments in 2012, just a small jump from the 1.7 billion in 2011. It’ll be the lowest annual growth rate since 2009 mostly due to the lacking interest in feature phones, which are expected to decline by 10 percent this year. “The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion. Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7,” Restivo added.

IDC has the market share statistics for all the major mobile operating systems as of 2012. Android takes the cake with 61 percent, followed by 20.5 percent for iOS, 6 percent for BlackBerry, 5.2 percent for Windows Phone/Mobile, and 7.2 percent for all others. In 2016, IDC expects every OS except Windows Phone to have dropped in market share. According to the forecast, Android will fall 8.1 percent to 52.9 percent, iOS will fall 1.5 percent to 19 percent, BlackBerry will fall 0.1 percent to 5.9 percent (which I personally find shocking considering RIM’s current shit fest,) and others will fall 4.2 percent to 3 percent. Windows Phone/Mobile, on the other hand, will leap from 5.2 percent all the way to 19.2 percent. It’s significant, but not enough for Android to give up its leadership position.

“What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements,” IDC analyst Ramon Llamas commented.

[via BGR]

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