Rumor: Nokia is “sitting somewhat idly” waiting for Windows Phone 8

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There’s a term in the consumer electronics industry called the “Osborne effect“. Without getting into the whole story, once upon a time there was a company that launched a product. People loved said product. The company said the next version would be even better, so people decided to just wait. Sales dried up to such an extent that the company went out of business. When Stephen Elop, Nokia’s CEO, got up on a stage in London in February 2011 and said that Symbian was dead, so was MeeGo, and that the future was Windows Phone, people decided to delay their smartphone purchase and wait until Nokia launched a Windows Phone. That happened nine months later in November, at least if you lived in the UK.

In early 2012 there were rumors that said today’s Windows Phones wouldn’t get upgraded to the next version of the OS, Windows Phone 8. Nokia refused to comment on the rumors, Microsoft refused to comment on the rumors, and that made people a bit wary. Sure enough, in late June, Microsoft held a “Windows Phone Summit” where they confirmed what people have been speculating for months, that Windows Phone 8 will require new hardware.

When are Nokia’s first Windows Phone 8 devices going to hit the market? If you’re an optimist, then the answer is late September. Realistically speaking, we’re looking at mid to late October, if not November. That’s three months away. An anonymous Nokia employee working in Asia spoke to Seeking Alpha and described the company’s current sitatuion:

“Since current Nokia phones will only work on Windows 7, the OEMs have stopped supporting the phones. They are very close to stop manufacturing parts for the phones, with the anticipation that these phones will become entirely obsolete in three months. In the meantime, the new phones developed for Windows 8 are yet to start manufacturing. Without much funding budgeted for new product development, the whole company has been sitting somewhat idly waiting for business to start on with the release of Windows 8.”

Translation: Q3 2012 is going to be one of Nokia’s bloodiest quarters.

Update: There’s a report from DigiTimes that says Compal, the Chinese company that makes Nokia’s Lumia phones, saw revenues drop 39.5% in June. Why? They say what pretty much what the source above says, that since today’s Windows Phones can’t get Windows Phone 8, sales are expected to fall.

  • Anonymous

    Another Osborne syndrome critic.  Microsoft’s OS and systems announcements have always mirrored Osborne pre production announcement model and never suffered the same effects as Osborne did with their system.  Certainly Windows ME and Vista are exceptions, but in my opinion, for what it’s worth, the Osborne syndrome won’t translate to Microsoft’s product launches.  Microsoft’s success is dependent on the consumers appeal and demand….period.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/NV25ZPWMBDYFXEYR3AWQ43ZS5E Hein S

    NOKIA is TOAST

  • Anonymous

    MICRO-NOKIA-RIM-SOFT…

  • MrClimatize

    I think Microsoft and Nokia know what they are doing. This has a big impact on Nokia obviously and i’m sure they will have a killer phone to drive up their sales once WP8 comes out. Plus, Microsoft won’t let Nokia fail anyway. It’s like a child who lost his job and apartment and their mother is helping out until they can get back on their feet.

    • http://twitter.com/omichalek Ondrej Michalek

      “Microsoft won’t let Nokia fail anyway”
      Yes, sure, Microsoft is well known for their ethics and great relationships with other companies. Just like this brief list suggests:
      http://www.asymco.com/2011/02/11/in-memoriam-microsofts-previous-strategic-mobile-partners/

      Maybe it is just me, but it seems that everything of value that was supposed to be brought into the deal was provided solely by Nokia. Mapping, worldwide language support, relationships with carriers and retail channel, you name it… The value that Microsoft was supposed to bring in was their mobile OS, incompatible with everything else at Nokia (Qt which bridges several versions of Symbian and MeeGo), inferior in almost every aspect compared to what Nokia has (had?) with MeeGo, and unsurprisingly very unwanted as well.

      As Tomi Ahonen shows, if we omit most of the world, counting only the EU5+USA+Australia, where Windows Phone has a chance, WinPho market share went from 1.6% to 2.4% in the past year.
      http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/why-did-ballmer-throw-nokia-now-under-the-bus-lets-dig-windows-phone-lumia-insights-from-kantar-stat.html

      On the other side, since the Microsoft buddy Elop running Nokia announced the “partnership”, Nokia’s worldwide market share fell from 29%, being the largest phone maker on the planet, to some 6% today in the past 24 month.
      Catastrophic destruction of what used to be the top European tech company, if you ask me…

  • http://twitter.com/svenkka63 Sven Hult

    Are you seriously referring to Tomi Ahonen’s blog as a fact? Tomi Ahonen’s hate campaign against Nokia is bending every single figure to prove his points, no matter what the truth is.

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