Juniper Research revised its forecasts for the global NFC market, significantly scaling back growth estimates for the North American and Western European markets, blaming the lack of NFC support in iPhone 5 for this. The new forecast says that by 2017, the proportion of NFC-enabled smartphones will be only marginally below previous estimates, but the retail transaction values are now expected to reach $110 billion in 2017, which is lower than the previous figure of $180 billion.
According to the report, iPhone 5’s lack of support for NFC lead to reduced POS (Point of Sale) rollouts and less NFC campaigns. This in turn will lead to lower NFC visibility amongst consumers and fewer opportunities to make payments, threatening a cycle of “NFC indifference” in the short term. In addition, Juniper said that Apple’s move would impact most dramatically on markets in North America and Western Europe, where transaction values would exhibit a “two year lag” on previous forecasts as retailers delay POS investments. Unsurprisingly, South Korea and Japan are unaffected by this.
Some other findings from the report include:
- Despite Apple’s decision, NFC trial consumer feedback at the London Olympic venues and in Singapore has been extremely positive, suggesting strong latent interest when services are more widely deployed.
- Both MasterCard and Visa have certified several NFC service solutions and datacenters, including those of Giesecke & Devrient and Gemalto
As usual you can get additional information from Juniper’s website.