Apple only held the crown for one year. That’s the short version. In 2025, Apple edged out Samsung by a single percentage point in global smartphone shipments, which is about as close as it gets in this industry. But according to SamMobile, Counterpoint Research is now predicting Samsung will take that number one position back in 2026. And the reasons behind it are more interesting than a simple market share scoreboard.
Here’s the twist: the global smartphone market is actually shrinking. Counterpoint Research expects worldwide shipments to fall 14.3% in 2026, largely because of an ongoing memory chip shortage that’s squeezing the entire industry. Most brands are feeling the pain. Samsung, though, is expected to grow 0.8% year over year. That’s not a massive number, but in a market that’s contracting by double digits, growing at all is a real statement.
So what gives Samsung the edge right now? Counterpoint Research Principal Analyst Wang Yang put it plainly: “Samsung’s return to the top position comes down to its internal component capabilities, broad portfolio, and established operator and retail relationships.” In other words, Samsung makes a lot of its own parts. When chip prices spike and supply chains get messy, that vertical integration is a serious advantage. Other brands have to scramble. Samsung has more control over what happens next.
It’s also worth looking at where Samsung is already winning. The company held the top spot for smartphone shipments in both Europe and Latin America during Q2 2026. Those are massive markets, and that kind of regional dominance adds up fast when you’re calculating full-year global figures.
For consumers, this rivalry between Samsung and Apple isn’t just a numbers game. Competition at the top pushes both companies to keep improving their hardware and software. Samsung has been on a serious run lately with its foldables and Galaxy AI features, while Apple keeps tightening its ecosystem. Neither brand is coasting. And that’s ultimately good news for anyone buying a phone in 2026.