Windows Phone 7 has yet to inspire much confidence in anyone, but it’s probably unfair to judge so quickly since it won’t be officially unveiled until Monday. Still, there have been plenty of previews and demos of the platform that some have felt confident enough to say that WP7 will “flounder.”
As a matter of fact, InformationWeek says that Windows Phone 7 will “barely move the needle on the company’s dismal share of the smartphone OS market, according to new data released Wednesday by industry analysts at Gartner.” Ouch!
Gartner even throws in specific numbers in terms of where Microsoft will be when it comes to the rest of the field:
Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft’s share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company’s share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.
By then, Microsoft will badly trail virtually every other major mobile OS developer, according to Gartner. The firm predicts the Symbian OS will continue to lead the market in 2014, with a 30.2% stake, just barely ahead of Google’s Android. Gartner sees Android’s share ballooning to 29.6% by 2014, up from 17.7% in 2010 and just 3.9% in 2009.
If the analysts are to be believed, it doesn’t look like Microsoft can do anything to stop the momentum that Android is building for itself, or the current market leader, Symbian.
Unfortunately, some consumers remain cynical because of the bad taste that Windows Mobile has left behind. Can the company responsible for such a poorly thought out OS be capable of burying its competitors? Microsoft seems to think so, but I’m having a hard time finding anyone else who shares its sentiment.
My thought is that Windows Phone 7 probably won’t oust Android or iOS in terms of popularity and market share, but it can’t be anywhere near as bad as Windows Mobile. Or the Kin 1 and 2, remember those things?