More People Looking to Buy Windows Phone than BlackBerry [Study]

A recent study by ChangeWave examined trends in mobile operating system preferences, and showed that 5% of respondents would prefer to buy a Windows Phone, versus 4% who wanted a BlackBerry. Of course, the difference between the two is negligible when the iPhone OS and Android took up 36% and 35% respectively, but it does say something bad about RIM’s momentum in the grand scheme of smartphones. The survey also examined satisfaction levels, which placed Windows Phone at 44% of people being very satisfied, versus 72% of iOS users and 58% for Android. There’s no mention of the BlackBerry number without a premium subscription, but considering how ChangeWave ranked RIM’s customer satisfaction in November, I’m going to guess it will be comparable or worse to WP7.

RIM’s next batch of BlackBerry handsets look to be yet another iteration on established form factors and OS paradigms, so there’s little reason to expect these trends to change dramatically within the year. Maybe once 2012 rolls around and we start seeing dual-core BlackBerrys that run the PlayBook’s QNX operating system, things will improve, but by that time the competition will have that much more of a head start. Regardless, it’s not like RIM’s losing money or anything; the market’s simply expanding, and there are more palatable alternatives becoming available to consumers now. I suspect that in the long haul, BlackBerry will hold onto a hardcore niche and remain the handset of choice for enterprise until the other platforms offer some kind of rich unified management system like BES.

[via Network World]

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, ChangeWave. That’s a research firm I’d bet money on. Why does a research firm that charges $1500 for their reports keep leaking information to blogs?

  • Oeo

    I agree. I am waiting for WP7 with a front facing camera.

  • i guess im the only one seeing wp7 is the only OS with an increase compared to the other….

    • geolemon

      Of course.
      Percentage points of interest have to come from somewhere…
      If you interpret the chart literally, that means 2% of people formerly-interested-in-iPhone are now interested in WP7, 2% of people formerly-interested-in-Android are now interested in iPhone, and 2% of people formerly-interested-in-Blackberry are now interested in iPhone. I’m sure there’s really a whole lot more movement (ie. iPhone-to-Android jumpers, etc), but that’s the gist of it.

      And that adds up to 6%… I’m sure rounding to whole percentage points accounts for the difference, and possibly that was less than 1% and more than 5% now for WP7, etc.
      But interest is a strong indicator of future trending.

  • geolemon

    I look at this chart as a potential big win for iPhone.

    For the past year, they have been dead-flat at 21% of smartphones (not counting iPads, iPods, etc), while Android has been growing, and Blackberry has been falling.
    This chart shows the same level of interest in iPhone as Android – and no surprise on the Blackberry chart, because that makes sense for a company whose subscriber base is actually dropping. They aren’t signing new customers. No surprise on the WP7 chart – they are new, not quite competitive yet, but not only showing promise, but learning from the smartphone OS’s that came before, and designing accordingly.
    For iPhone – we know Android is signing 300,000/day new activations, and iPhone less than that.

    Based on this chart, that means one of two things for iPhone, depending on info we don’t know:
    1) There’s as much interest in iPhone as Android phones, and the Verizon move is going to reignite iPhone’s growth rate, bringing it (based on this chart) right equal to Android growth and marketshare.
    2) This has always been the interest level, until people go to get one, and as they learn more, they find other things more attractive on other smartphones, and end up buying another (by the chart above, we’d guess Android, a few BB’s and a few WP7’s).

    I truthfully don’t know which. I know I fall into camp #2 – I like having different models to select from to suit my usage needs, and the ability to customize the UI to my particular goals, but iPhone has so much momentum in the way of public perception, a strong and full app store, and more “things with docks” than any other carrier will ever seen… a real (if not the only) advantage of only offering one model.

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