Guessing Nokia’s Q2 2012 Windows Phone sales

Three months ago I took a shot at guessing how many Windows Phones Nokia sold during the first quarter of 2012. Using some simple multiplication, a few statistics published by a couple of analyst firms, and after making some assumptions, I cranked out the number 2.2 million. The actual result? 2 million.

Nokia is going to post their financial results next week, on the 19th, so I’d like to try and guess their sales numbers again. Let’s begin with the data I’m going to use. Last quarter I started by taking Horace Dediu’s prediction that Apple would ship 37.3 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012 and assumed it was correct. This quarter Hoarce has yet to publish his estimate, so I’m going to rely on “Sammy the Walrus IV“. Never heard of him? He doesn’t write all that often, but he seems to have a lot of clout in the Apple community. Anyway, he assumes that during Q2 2012 Apple shipped 29.5 million iPhones.

Using that data point, it’s time to figure out how many smartphones were sold during the second quarter. Strategy Analytics says that Apple controlled 24.1% of the smartphone market during Q1 2012. According to StatCounter, which is a web analytics company, 23.85% of all mobile web traffic went through iOS devices in April 2012, the start of Q2. In June however, the end of Q2, it was up to 24.56%. That’s an increase of 2.933%. Applying that increase to the 24.1% Apple got in Q1 2012, let’s now assume Apple will reach 24.81% smartphone market share in Q2 2012.

Taking that new 24.81% number, and using Sammy’s prediction of 29.5 million iPhone sales, means that 118.9 million smartphones were sold during the quarter. Now last quarter I assumed Windows Phone had a market share of 2%. According to StatCounter, Windows Phone has yet to break into the global top eight mobile operating systems representing web traffic. Thankfully their tool allows you to focus on specific territories. I’ve decided to go with Europe because that’s where Nokia’s Lumia phones have been on sale the longest. In April 2012 Windows Phone had 1.11% market share. Three months later and that got bumped up to 1.36%. That’s a 20.2% increase.

Multiply that 20.2% increase by the 2% share Windows Phone had in Q1 and you get 2.4% smartphone market share for Q2 2012. What’s 2.4% of 118.9 million?

2.85 million.

According to Reuters, analysts are expecting 3.8 million. Let’s see who’s closer.

Update: Here’s some other data points from StatCounter:

  • USA: Windows Phone had 0.95% market share in April, went up to 1.02% in June.
  • UK: Windows Phone went from 0.89% market share in April to 1.08% in June.
  • Germany: Windows Phone market share fell from 1.68% in April to 1.5% in June.
  • India: Windows Phone isn’t even in the top eight.
  • China: Windows Phone nearly doubled from 0.3% in April to 0.56% in June.

Update: Horace let me know he published his iPhone sales estimate well over a month ago. His number, 28.5 million, is 1 million less than Sammy’s. Plugging his number into my “method” results in 2.76 million, which I’d probably end up rounding to 2.8 million.

  • Anonymous

    Will the number of phones shipped or sold be announced? (Im guessing shipped?) Your figure is number sold and Reuters/analysts shipped, hence the discrepancy?

    • Technically if it was shipped then it was sold to an operator, but anyway, this prediction is simply for the number that Nokia will unveil on the 19th.

      • 50000

        And it was 50% higher than your estimate, yay! 🙂

  • Francis.R.

    In India and China i guess symbian sell much more.

    • JD!

       In India, Nokia still is No. 1. But I doubt if it is Lumia, as most of them are S40 devices.

      I guess Nokia has around 30% market share…

  • Place your bets now…

  • Anonymous

    At least the share price can’t really go down that much anymore, if the they don’t meet expectations.

    Litre of gasoline is allready more expensive in Helsinki than a Nokia share. Drive few kilometers or buy a piece of burning platform? That is the question. Instead of car-free day, Greens should annouce Nokia day when everybody buys Nokia stock instead of driving.

  • nokiator

    Did this already in May, but US sales for lumia 3 million and for the rest of the world 4 million, total of smartphones 10-11 million units.

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