According to Juniper Research, the mobile money transfer market will be particularly vulnerable to the effects of the global recession due to job losses in the migrant worker population. Under the worst case scenario the market will reach $73bn by 2011, some 50% less than previously forecast.
Report author Howard Wilcox points out that workers from countries such as India, the Philippines and Mexico are likely to be hit in this way because of the sheer numbers working abroad as expatriates. “However, we still see this market long term as a significant growth opportunity,” he added.
Juniper is still confident that all the mobile commerce market segments are still set to grow significantly over the next five years driven by a range of factors including user demand, but they will all be affected to a greater or lesser extent by the recession.
The Juniper Research study titled “Mobile Commerce: Prospects for Payments, Ticketing, Coupons and Banking 2008-2013” analyses the trends and issues affecting the mobile commerce market, across all the main segments providing forecasts of gross transaction values for digital goods and physical goods purchases, NFC (Near Field Communications), mobile money transfers, ticketing, coupons and banking… More information is available on Juniper’s website.