Trash the iPhone?! Who would dare think such a thing? Well, apparently, John Dvorak thinks Apple should do away with their iPhone. He cites overconfidence, on Apple’s part, based on past success with the iPod – clearly Apple best selling product.
Dvorak says that when you compare the MP3 market to the mobile phone market, there is a clear disconnect in the the condition of the respective markets. When Apple essentially took over the MP3 market, they were dealing with a confused and segmented market, easy prey for the advertising genius that is Steve Jobs and Apple.
Contrast that to the current state of the mobile phone industry, and, according to Dvorak, Apple is walking into a “buzzsaw waiting to chop up newbies.” In a market where competition is fierce and margins are minuscule, Apple would do well to write-off the iPhone as a reference design and pass it on to “suckers.”
Now, the rest of us know better than that. Dvorak clearly underestimates what great marketing and hype can do for a product, regardless of the market’s saturation. There are a lot of players in the mobile phone industry, just like there was when the iPod hit the scene. As such, consolidation will likely lead to a few key players. But, that doesn’t mean that Apple will get cut out or lost in the fodder. On the contrary, Apple is poised to re-shape the industry – especially with regard to the operator-manufacturer relationship that has arguably stifled innovation.
Look out Dvorak, when you make bold claims like this, you will get attention. Just don’t forget that the attention may turn against you when you prove to be wrong.