Why Apple will NOT repeat the iPod success with the iPhone
By Dusan Belic on Wednesday, May 23rd, 2007 at 10:01 AM PST In Apple, Devices, iPhone
Over at FastCompany.com, Saabira Chaudhuri prepared an interesting article arguing why Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) will not repeat its iPod success with the iPhone.
The in-depth article starts with a brief history of Apple, and then goes through the iPod’s main features — the ones that made it the single best selling portable music player on the planet. According to Chris Breen, Senior Director of MacWorld magazine: “Apple was the first company to do it right.”
The question afterwards is logical – can iPhone even come close? Pro arguments include relying on Apple’s fan base, but also on other people who are unsatisfied with their current handsets (and there are many of them), and are looking for alternatives. On the contra side, there’s always the price bundled with an expensive AT&T (NYSE: T)’s contract, as well as the change of game for the Cupertino-based company. Playing with carriers is not an easy task, and there are so many players on the market today, that it’s quite hard to get your place under the sun. Still, Apple’s shot could disturb the handset maker’s high-end device sales.
The bottom line is that iPhone can’t come even close to the iPod’s numbers. The problem is that iPod set an impossibly high bar — but the iPhone could still be very successful, particularly in the long term… The whole story is available from here. (photo taken from labusabilidad)
I agree. Too much hype over the fact that it is an apple device, and it’s OS.
The cell phone market is just too huge to make the iPhone like the iPod. And if for some crazy, insane reason (I really don’t think it will happen) that the iPhone is as sucessful as the iPod, that would be amazing and would really screw up the current phone industry. My take is that the iPhone will be a formidable presence in the market but nothing too huge, at least not at first. I think we will start to see a turn around when/if a 3rd generation comes out. I intend to (attempt to) purchase one when it is released, however only God knows what AT&T is going to do with iPhone users.
The phone market is much bigger than the ipod market. So it stands that Apple will attack the phone market with a slew of phones over the next few years.
It’s anew OS to the phone arena there fore you will see better tuned software towards users.
It the software stupid.
I don’t believe Apple has ever said they plan for the iPhone to be as big as the iPod. They have an aggressive goal to sell 12 million in the first couple of years. They want a wildly successful product, but to me seem to be realistic about how much they can penetrate the market. The iPhone/iPod comparison is not apples to apples (pun intended).
I’ll check back on this blog in a couple of years to watch you wiping the egg off your face…
The iPod succeeded because it made what, for a lot of people, had been a very hard thing – namely digital music – into something anybody could use and enjoy. Don’t forget that 50% of the success of the iPod is due to iTunes.
The iPhone will do something similar, in my opinion, because it will make what’s currently difficult for a lot of people – namely managing contacts, making calls, synching a calendar, using the internet on a mobile device, etc – it will make all of those things EASY and FUN.
…and it also looks like it’s going to be a FANTASTIC iPod to boot.
At this moment in time you would have to be very silly to bet agains the iPhone being a roaring success. In fact, I think it’ll make the iPod look like a minor fad.
The article is wrong in assuming that the ipod automatically received instant sucess after it was released. It didn’t. It took the public almost two years and two generations of iPods before it became popular. I predict the same for the iPhone. The price of the original iPod does compare to the price of the iPhone in comparison to competing products.
It’s the carrier that is going to make or break this product. The one thing that Apple does not control.
The success of the iPod:
The iPod sold 100 million units in six years.
With projected sales of 10 million units in 18 months, how long do YOU think it will take to hit the 100 million mark? Five years? Four?
I predict that @ Macworld 2008, we will hear how the iPhone is outpacing the iPod.
P.S. The RAZR has sold 97 million units.
The RAZR was wildly successful for it’s price point and design aesthetics. While the iPhone has design, it doesn’t have the affordable price point. It can’t be expected to do as well as the RAZR, and it was never intended repeat iPod success – only ride it coat-tails, as it were…
Basically the analyst is making a statement that can not be disproved or proved correct.
Are you measuring impact on a CE category? Prior to the ipod, there were probably sales in the million range in the US for mp3 players while clearly the cell phone market is much more mature.
The ipod holds about a 70% market share and has sold about 100 million, it’s pretty clear where all other stand in terms of raw numbers – the cell phone market is nearly a billion sold every year so is she going way out on a limb and saying Apple is not going to sell 700 million phones in the next few years? That’s quite gutsy of her to say that – what’s next, man is not going to be on Mars within 5 years?
Or is she merely talking about buzz around design? That the iphone won’t creat nearly as much a buzz as the ipod did & does? That of course is subjective and easy to claim knowledge about BEFORE the thing is released, what was her thought on the ipod 5 years ago? I think someone as timd as her probably dismissed the ipod as same old but too expensive …
Sound familiar? Yep, other than people who work for Verizon, Sprint, Nokia & moto – it will be the biggest hit of 2007 – flat out – no question. You don’t want one or you can’t afford one, it’s not for you then.
The cell phones companies/manufacturers had a 15 year headstart and they blew it. Look at your phone and look at the ipod 6 years ago – that is the evolutionary stepped all the cell companies missed. I have had about 10 phones so i knw exactly what I’m talking about – and I’m not buying $29 phones, I don’t think I’ve ever paid less than $150 for a phone – some have very nice features or were nice in its design but comapred to the brilliance of how the ipod is 100 times better than the competitor upon release? It will repeat here. My phone cannot sync correctly and for some reason, it’s either a feature or a bug, when it jostles in my pants pocket, it canges from silent to vibrate – just plain laziness or dumb design on the part of the cell phone companies. Anyone out there with a 98% perfect phone? Sure, they’ll let you buy a track a month for $17.50 but it can’t figure out if your contact has 5 phone numbers, you don’t want 5 entries?
So, of course, those here who work for the other 7 companies are mad they weren’t selected, it’s natural and you’ll wonder why on June 22nd, people want to know why you’re using that instead of an iphone … but you’re a good company man, you gotta take one for the team but for everyone else – it’s cell phone 2.0 time. Now, of course, if you think $25 is all you should pay for a phone – great – everyone is entitl;ed to make their own buying decisions – just like some people don’t mind paying $600 for a tattoo but not for a phone, it’s your money and your choice but don’t say it’s too expensive unless you have neverr bought anything in your life for $600 because it’s cost is only relative to your interests or overall income. $600 will buy 600 boxes of mac & cheese or a couple ounces of a truffle – your choice but clearly based on the UI from the ipod, it should be the best phone experience on the planet. If that’s not important to you, that’s fine but don’t disrepect other people’s decisions. Just step away.
Hammer of Truth and JBelkin makes two good points. First, the article did operate on the assumption that Apple’s iPod became an instant success. It did not. The first year it only worked on Macs. I do not believe iTunes (as a download service) was released until about two years after the initial iPod introduction, and iTunes for Windows took an additional year.
Apple always introduces a pricey product first. Usually because the product is state of the art. After initial demand starts to waiver, Apple will update the line making the high end product better at near the same price point, but also providing a cheaper model. Eventually Apple will release different phone lines all together at various price points, like it did with the Nano and Shuffles.
Also it is correct that the article doesn’t clarify what it means by the iPhone not being able to repeat the iPod’s success. Are we talking market share, units sold, or dollars made? The music market had digital players when Apple came around, however, they didn’t have Apple’s design prowlness or its marketing muscle. It seems to me Apple could easily outperform the iPod in terms of units sold, or dollars made. Marketshare is another issue. Capturing 70 percent of the market would be tough because Apple is relying on a third party to provide one of the essential services that the device relies on.
The other big players, however, are clearly nervous, including Microsoft. With good reason.
Well put
“…It seems to me Apple could easily outperform the iPod in terms of units sold, or dollars made. Marketshare is another issue. Capturing 70 percent of the market would be tough because Apple is relying on a third party to provide one of the essential services that the device relies on…..”
@ Terrin – you are right … not to believe
“I do not believe iTunes (as a download service) was released until about two years after the initial iPod introduction…”
Coz … iTunes set forth in January 10, 2001 and the first iPod was announced on 23, October 2001.
I’m pretty sure that the iPhone WILL stomp the competition because it reduces the amount of gadgetry in one’s pocket. If you call it expensive, then know that it’s less than the price of an iPod and a Razr.