According to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media, there will be four billion global mobile subscriptions at the end of this year! To put the number in perspective, it took five full quarters for the latest billion net additions.
Naturally emerging markets such as India and China are to “blame” for this rapid growth. The two mentioned countries have seen over 50 million new mobile subscriptions during the last six months. Other countries that also saw a significant growth in mobile phone penetration include Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and Brazil.
On the down side, though, this growth is set to slow, and Informa predicts the five billionth subscription will be signed during Q4 2011, with worldwide penetration reaching in excess of 70% by this time. Only in Africa will penetration at the end of 2011 still be below 50%.
The world’s largest mobile operators know the market will stop growing at some point, hence they’re broadening, and in some cases reconsidering their strategic thinking. Informa’s “Mobile Operator Strategies” report studies the parallel business lines being assumed by the likes of Vodafone, China Mobile and Telenor. On the one hand, the extension of basic mobile connectivity to new lower-income groups remains central to their strategic direction, but increasingly so too is the accelerating collision of broadband Internet and mobility.