Mobile TV: at a critical point now?

Mobile TV seems to have been bubbling away at a simmer for a number of years now. As early back as 2004, there was a lot of noise about how TV services could be offered.. As an early adopter myself, and working for device vendors and network operators, I got to try a lot of the services out there – right from 5 frames-per-second GPRS streaming, through to the newer broadcast variants such as MediaFLO and DVB-H.

The problem has never been with the TV service as such – it’s widely accepted that most people would use it on a semi-regular basis, if the content and quality were good enough, and, if the PRICE were right. And that’s really been the stumbling block for a while.

Operators, or service providers, have been looking at the cost (both CAPEX and OPEX-wise) of deploying a Mobile TV infrastructure (including broadcast), and found it’s hugely expensive. They have also been looking at the revenues they would get back, comparing TV services to those terrestrial/satellite/cable home services, and found that in many cases, the business model doesn’t stack up. Even the oft-mooted Mobile Advertising can’t fill the gap.

So we have a weird stand-off, where Operators would considering deploying a service but largely won’t because COSTS > PROFIT, at least for the short and medium-term. Sure, a few Operators have tried, but they have only served to prove the point for the others. Even those which are profitable, I would bet are not seeing major contribution to ARPU from Mobile TV.

The handset vendors have occupied a strange position too – a number of notables have invested in providing the handsets (and continue to),  but the lack of choice (and relative high cost), mean that they haven’t been able to shift volume units in many cases. It’s been left to those with the bespoke engineering ability, or the scale of operations, to continue drip-feeding the market.

Now that we have the global economic downturn, the idea of a (broadcast) Mobile TV network is even less attractive – Operators can’t be seen to be spending something like $500m+ on network infrastructure for TV, when the revenue-generating upgrades to network tech such as 3.5G, HSPA+, and LTE are all available and waiting for roll-out. In this scenario, peoples’ need to be connected, outweighs the need to be entertained.

So what could happen? Well, I genuinely think that the next couple of years could be make-or-break for broadcast Mobile TV as we know it – the window of opportunity is decreasing, and soon we’ll have high-bandwidth IP networks that can stream channels with multicasting and good quality. At that point, assuming wide network coverage, the need for broadcast technologies declines a great deal. And with the additional pressure on the economy that is existing, it might just encourage Operator to wait for the next big thing (4G?), missing that window altogether. If progressive-download/streaming services running on these networks continue to improve their user experience, we might even see today’s Mobile broadcast TV completely eclipsed.