The total number of 4G subscribers worldwide, including both LTE and WiMAX, is expected to exceed 90 million in 2013, according to a new forecast from ABI Research.
Worldwide WCDMA subscriber numbers hit 180 million in Q4 2007 and the research company expects migration to HSPA+ to begin in early 2010, while the LTE migration will commence by the middle of the same year. In total, ABI Research predicts that the total number of WCDMA subscribers will approach 720 million in 2013.
In the parallel universe of CDMA things look more uncertain and at the moment CDMA operators are taking advantage of current upgrade possibilities. Many have upgraded portions of their networks to EV-DO Rev A during 2007 while new CDMA entrants start with Rev A. ABI Research expects the total number of CDMA2000 subscribers (including 1x and various versions of EV-DO) to approach 800 million by the end of 2013.
However, ABI Research cautions about a number of milestones that must be passed along the way. For instance Hwai Lin Khor says: “Some operators may not be ready to move on to LTE, as the peak data rates of 100 Mbps downlink and 50 Mbps uplink are achievable only with a 20 MHz spectrum band. That is a luxury that most operators may not have, and many may be content with the capabilities of HSPA+ or settle for suboptimal LTE data rates with whatever they have at the time.”
As always, more information is available on ABI Research’s website.