ABI Research argues that despite the fact that everyone’s all about 4G these days, most carriers around the world are first looking to upgrade their networks to HSPA+ and then eventually switch to LTE. By the end of this year, 20 LTE networks are set to go live, but by the end 2015 only 11% of installed base stations will be LTE.
Some markets in South America and Africa have yet to consolidate their 3G spectrum awards. Of those carriers that have 3G licenses, many have deployed HSDPA and HSUPA. Furthermore, 50 carriers have installed HSPA+, and in that’s the trend ABI says will continue. According to their estimates, by 2015, 75% of WCDMA-capable base stations will have had the HSPA+ upgrade. In 2012 alone, equipment spending on HSPA+ will be 11% of total equipment expenditure.
Vendors such as Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei can still get mileage out of selling 3G and 3.5G equipment. While the proportion of greenfield base stations has dropped, there is still a need to upgrade existing sites.
Additional information is available from ABI’s “Wireless Infrastructure Forecasts,” which is a part of their “Mobile Networks Research Service.”