Krisse over at All About Symbian wrote an editorial discussing the popularity of web based applications (Gmail, Google Calender, Google Maps, etc.) replacing their desktop counterparts and how we will see a similar trend occur on mobile phones.
If she published this piece 6 months ago I would’ve nodded my head in agreement and left it at that. Things have changed however and I don’t agree with her assumption.
Let’s begin with AJAX. It’s wonderful when it works, but the browser team would have to make sure that all the hot new sites function properly. Can they put in an effort to do it? Probably, but what would you rather have: The browser team working on making the browser compatible with AJAX rich websites or the browser team striving to reduce the memory footprint, improving stability and adding features?
When the whole Web 2.0 thing began the meme was "Death to the OS" and "Applications in the cloud" are the wave of the future. If you check out the blogosphere today then you’ll see everyone is going gaga over Adobe Apollo, Adobe Flex, Windows Presentation Foundation and Widgets. Taking the application out of the browser and turning it into a full blown desktop app that works both on and offline is what people want.
Zimbra, one of the most popular online PIM’s on the market, recently announced that they’re going to release a desktop version. Adobe created an eBay store using an alpha version their new Apollo technology. The New York Times Reader was built on Windows Presentation Foundation. Mac OS X and Windows Vista users are already enjoying web connected widgets.
What do I think the future will bring?
Battles. Huge, bloody, costly, battles. We’re already seeing it happen with widgets. If I as a developer want to make my widget work on Mac OS X, Windows Vista, Google Homepage, Pageflakes, Netvibes, etc. I essentially have to rewrite it over and over again.
Java on cell phones is a mess. I’m not even going to touch that one.
Applications like Widsets, ZenZui, BluePulse and Opera for Mobile 9 are trying to bring the widget experience to cell phones. The problem is they’re replicating the exact same developer frustration experienced with desktop widgets.
Will Adobe make Apollo for Mobile? I certainly hope so. They have experience in making a cross platform runtime (Flash) work.
Flash Lite 3 is a step in the right direction. It fully supports YouTube and other websites built on the latest desktop version of Flash, but it isn’t out yet so I can’t comment.
I can’t predict the future. If I could I’d be a billionaire, but I will tell you this: Mobile applications in the browser gaining in popularity is a bet I’m not willing to take.
Biskero: Do you have anything to add to this? You are the only Flash expert I know.