Analyst: iPhone to Beat BlackBerry Market Share in 2011

In North America, BlackBerry is currently the smartphone to beat, but the meteoric rise of the iPhone will continue well into 2011 and nab RIM’s number one market share spot, according to Trefis. This conclusion was based on the clear outpacing of growth Apple has enjoyed with the iPhone. In 2007, iPhone growth sat 0.3%, and in 2009, they were at 2%, while RIM went from 1% to 3% in the same period.  By 2011, Trefis is forecasting Apple’s mobile market share will hit 11% and RIM will reach 8%.

Even as one of the BlackBerry faithful, I find it hard to deny this eventuality. Apple has a ludicrously large marketing budget, which will continue to be used to to capitalize RIM’s buttoned-down image and win the dead hearts and vacant minds of the masses. Despite the competition, the latest forecasts for RIM continue to be positive – BlackBerry still has more than a little fight left in her, that’s for sure.

[via Forbes]

  • dd

    I think you meant that by _2016_, Apple’s share is “predicted” to be 11% and RIM’s 8%. I say “predicted”, because I find it retarded that one can just grab one years growth in percents and linearly extrapolate it to six years in the future and call it an analysis.

    If we assume a very modest growth of 2% of mobile phone shipments annually, base level being 2009, in 2016 1,3B mobile phones will be shipped. To reach 11% market share, Apple would have to sell 142 million iPhones a year. Good for them if they can, but I’m not that optimistic.

    All this is of course an exercise in futility, because there’s no way one can predict market shares that far in the future no matter how much thought one puts to it. You can try taking a snapshot of mobile phone shipments by vendors in 2004, extrapolate it to present and see how different the reality is.

  • Simon Sage

    Agreed, dd, and on the same premise I think any forecasts or analyses should be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Todd Sieling

    > Apple has a ludicrously large marketing budget

    They also have a very good product, which is doing more for them than all the advertising in the world. I see pretty much two kinds of iphone ads: a handful for tv made by apple, and print ads made by the carriers. Reducing it all to marketing misses what’s happened in the market by a mile.

  • Martin

    Is that you Steve, did you write this?

    RIM is making in roads in China and I’m sure that will compensate the the teeny bopper market going Apple’s way.

    • james

      ha ha.. they have been making 'inroads' for 10 years in Asia and aren't really selling anywhere except for a few blips in Indo and India.

  • Hayes Myers

    I actually agree wtih the analysis. Iphone is for young kids to have status… BlackBerry is business. The business market is lucrative enough… let Iphone be what it is…another product that is cool..expensive..and really not worth my time.

  • dave

    I am not surprised really. I went into a Telus store to buy a Blackberry Storm 2, and the clerks there were relentless in telling me it is much worse than the 3gs. I wanted to be loyal to Blackberry, but when it is at the same price with the same blarney of a three year contract required, and the clerks are telling you it is much worse than the 3gs (despite great reviews for the storm 2), it is no secret that Apple will cut into Rim`s domestic share.

  • jmann

    This is by no means an analysis it is a short and over simplified opinion disguised as “news” . The author of this piece has the privilege of publishing on an international forum and I would hope that in the future they would produce a balanced and mature article. As to the lot you “business users” I would seriously suggest reevaluating why you need to cling to bashing a opposing point of view or a product you don’t use. If a blackberry works for you then be confident and express how it does constructively. Trying to dismiss the iphone off hand just reeks of your own insecurities and reveals a very unimaginative and narrow minded way of thinking about the world in general. Any business worth their salt or professional for that matter would know better than to dismiss people in general to be “dead”, “oblivious”, and “stupid” and so on. People don’t buy and continue to use the iphone simply because its “pretty” I frankly don’t know of any business model that works on the premise. A product has to hold some utility to the person using it and usually that utility derives from function and form not just form even in art the function is the form but the function is never non existent. So grow up and start using the spectrum of colours available to you not just the usual “black and white” “with me or against me” what waste of our precious resources.

Back to top ▴