Analyst says Android tablets will beat out iPad

It would be impossible to say that the iPad isn’t a runaway hit. Apple has been selling its tablets like hotcakes with no formidable competition currently available but Apple doesn’t have the advantage it had with the iPhone.

The times, they are a changing, and at least one analyst believes that some of the predictions for iPad sales are a bit aggressive. He believes that Android-based tablets will eventually rule the roost.

There’s much less of a time gap from when the iPad was released to the upcoming onslaught of Android based tablets compared to launch of the original iPhone. The original iPhone was launched in June of 2007, with no decent smartphone opponent until the introduction of the T-Mobile G1, the world’s first Android phone. Still, the G1 paled in comparison to the iPhone at the time, but much of that has changed with the current state of Android OS. The iPad was released in April of this year, and with the Samsung Galaxy Tab expected to launch sometime in early November, Apple doesn’t have the advantage it once had with the iPhone.

Still, it will be an uphill battle for Android-based tablets. In early 2011, the market will likely begin to see just how many Android tablets are coming and only then will they begin its ascent to dethrone the current king – a trend that’s already happening with Android phones taking the iPhone head-on. Gene Munster, Senior Research Analyst for Piper Jaffray believes that tablets will indeed be the next big thing in mobile computing, but Apple will not be the top dog – that position will be filled by Android.

He goes on to say that rumors indicating that Apple supply chain vendors are prepping to make around 45 million iPads next year is a little aggressive and it will likely be somewhere near 20-25 million. Apple usually, give or take a couple of products from the past, makes gold.

The company is innovative to the Nth degree, but they cannot innovate as fast as the hoards of companies that are developing Android tablets. It can’t and won’t.

Unless putting a camera on a tablet is innovation, Apple needs to step up the specs on their next iPad, as Android tablets will come with many competing hardware specs and price points.

When asked about Microsoft in the tablet market, Munster believes it will be hard for it to gain significance in the tablet space and that the top three players will be Apple, Android and Meego. Let’s just let Microsoft launch Windows Phone 7 first and take it from there.

For now, and possibly until late 2011, or later, Apple’s iPad will remain king and that’s fine. It’s a great product, even if it is missing some features and it has proven to be quite a solid product.

But as we’ve seen before and are seeing now, Apple’s market share will begin to shrink with Android happily lapping up its losses.

Check out the video below.

[Via: BusinessInsider]

  • dil

    Speculate much?

  • chuckie

    you know, listening to what analysts “speculate” is sort of ludicrous. Most analysts predicted that the iPhone wouldn’t go. Ooops. Most analysts predicted that the iPad wouldn’t go. Oops again. Most analysts even predicted that Apple would fail with the iPod.

    Say what you want, but I’m betting that the analysts are saying what their customers want to hear by extrapolating from an insignificant statistical sample. It lets them be media stars and have an effect on stock prices but it doesn’t make them accurate.

    I’d wager that if somebody built a web site to track the “predictions” made by these modern day oracles then people would quickly find that the analysts are BSers of the first order.

    But your mileage may vary…

  • brooklynwry

    “The company is innovative to the Nth degree, but they cannot innovate as fast as the hoards of companies that are developing Android tablets. It can’t and won’t.”

    But they absolutely “can and did” when it came to the hordes of companies making MP3 players.

    And the quite arguably could have/might if the iPhone had been available for other carriers. I’m not saying that nobody would be buying Androids, but the picture would be *vastly* different.

    Frankly, I have no idea how this will pan out. But this article seems to be predicated on some wishful thinking of the author or “analyst”, not necessarily any facts.

    • Anonymous

      We’re not IntoMP3players, we’re keeping it mobile, and you’re right. At the same time, there’s never been ANY decent alternative to the iPod. Apple also used their iPod sales numbers to combat the Android sales numbers a while back, claiming since it’s the same OS they are still ahead. But you can’t mix OS market share with a smartphone sales report.If the iPhone was released on multiple carries (which, by the way, it is on multiple carriers outside of the US), all that would mean is that Android would just have to climb a little longer, but it will still take over. It really comes down to strategy. Google’s strategy have proven to be better, which is why you’re seeing the massive adoption. This is definitely not to say Android is a better OS, but when it comes to getting actual phones in the hands of people, Google is doing something right. Would you call it wishful thinking to assume that Android will do the same to the iPad with what it’s doing with the iPhone? It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a better OS, but it’s just what happens when you give your software away for free than having one device and total control.

      • Leon Jay

        wrong! the creative zen with it’s SD slot beats the heck out of the ipods when price is considered. apple wins because it spends zillions on advertising, not because its product is better

  • Jo Jo

    Um Duh.

    One os a phone, the other is NOT. How many people use phones? Almost all of them, if not every single person on the plant.

    Now how many people have a secondary semi-novle computer to compliment the desktop system they already own? Not nearly as many. Duh again.

    Why are you comparing totally different things?

  • Mr Garg

    There were 50 tablets expected to be out by now. Most have canceled release. The android phones have shown more promise then delivery. We keep expecting the “Iphone killer” but despite giving away a ton of development on the Android. No matter how well Android does the consumers are going do win in the competition between the iOS, Android, Windows 7 mobile, and Meego.

  • Mralex

    Cheap way to get hits on your tech page–predict Apple failure against all current indicators.

    First, Apple is not out to sell more iPads than all other tablets combined, just as it is perfectly happy with the marketshare it currently has for iPhone.

    Second, both with iPod and iPhone, there was nothing stopping any other manufacturer from producing either product before Apple did. The market is already littered with dozens of failed tablets launched and failed over the last decade.

    If Android develops a tablet market, it will be because Apple paved the way. Second, expect the failure rate of Android tablets to be considerably higher that Apple’s/.

  • “Still, the G1 paled in comparison to the iPhone at the time, but much of that has changed with the current state of Android OS”

    It has? Because I’ve used Android and its a confusing mess and the Store is too. Are you trying to say Android is… winning somehow? Winning how? It’s a free OS that relies on advertising for revenues to fund development. Is it even profitable? Who’s clicking on built in ads? I see no answers to any of these questions.

    Maybe you should wait for some (!!) HD/10″ inch Android apps before you start selling AAPL.
    Guess what? Apple owns this Christmas, from iPods to iPads and Macbooks. They’re pushing production up to 3M/month of what are basically $500-1000 portable Macs.

    And then there’s a bunch of KIRF Android devices running… a phone OS.

    You know what Apple’s gonna do? They’re gonna do an iPad mini. The current iPad kills the Kindle DX for 10 inch value prop, and the upcoming 7 inch iPad mini will smoke the Kindle for 7 inch value prop.

    And in return Amazon will come out with an Android Book Reader/Kindle.

  • Rob

    having used both and probably to a greater degree than Michael up there and I can tell you Android is not a confusing mess…..Maybe if you are used to the fisher price simplicity (and capability) of an apple product. If a phone had one big red button and it could only dial one number of course it would be simpler to use than a regular phone…but would you want one. Over all having used both I would say the only ways the iphone beats Android phones is battery life and games and even they games area is shrinking. Capability and usefulness and multi tasking Andoid has the iphone beat hands down. People are adopting Android beacause they like to do things like just connect their phones and copy over music and pictures and files or vice versa , which the iphone cannot do fully (try copying over a text or excel file) and cannot do partially without itunes (having to create a playlist and then synch it to get your music arranged how you want on your phone is not progress). I do not doubt that Android will beat ios in the tablet arena as well, the ability to play more files out if the box free productivity apps (google docs) and usb ports are just some of the reasons Android will outsell the ipad a lot sooner than the Android phone started outselling the iphone. (I give it less than a year). In fact when you compare the number of Android tables that come out and get sold versus and the number of ipads sold I wouldnt be shocked if apple double dips again to include ipod touch (probably start calling it ipad mini or something). When faced with Android growing dominance over ios in the mobile field I hear nothing but a lot of excuses from ios fans: Your only winning because we let you win by sticking with AT and T (which doesn hold true for other aeras of the world where the iphone is sold by more than one carier), your only winning because the consumer doesnt know any better (the iphone is EVERYWHERE the consumer knows about it) this is just a flash in the pan users will eventually go back to ios (most sources agree Android will outsell ios, they just argue as to when). ios is a limited platform, sold by a company that likes restrictions, that may have more apps for now but most are mostly useless. Get used to it, apples brief stay on top is rapidly coming to a close.

  • Even an Apple fanboi like Gene Munster can admit that Android tablets will outsell iPads.

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