The Nokia Lumia 900 on AT&T is selling at a run rate of 1 million units for Q2 2012

Jamie Townsend, an analyst with Town Hall Investment Research, has issued a report that says the Nokia Lumia 900 on AT&T is selling at a run rate of about 1 million units for Q2 2012. What exactly does that mean? Jamie is basically saying that if the Lumia 900 keeps on selling at the same pace that it’s been selling since it launched two weeks ago, then AT&T will manage to sell over 1 million of them by the end of Q2 2012, which is a fancy way of saying the end of June. How did Jamie discover the Lumia 900 run rate? By reading a report from Aapo Markkanen, an analyst with ABI Research, who makes the 1 million in Q2 2012 assumption based on a single data point about the success of a Windows Phone game called Taptitude.

Should we believe Jamie and Aapo? No. Why? Because devices like the Lumia 900 receive a predetermined amount of promotion. Once all those marketing dollars are spent, that’s it. There’s no more. But let’s assume for a second that AT&T does promote the Lumia 900 aggressively for three months straight, will people still buy it now that the $100 credit doesn’t exist anymore? Back when the Lumia 900 first started shipping, there was a software bug discovered whereby the phone would lose the ability to connect to the internet unless it was reset. Nokia fixed the issue in less than a week and said anyone who bought a Lumia 900 from the day it was launched to April 21st (last Saturday) would get $100 for free on their next phone bill. That basically made the Lumia 900 free. It isn’t anymore. And let’s not forget about the HTC One X, launching in less than two weeks, don’t you think that’ll steal some of Nokia’s sales?

Here’s another data point: Assume the 1 million in Q2 2012 figure is right. There are 12 weeks in a quarter. The Lumia 900 started selling during the second week of Q1 2012, so 1 million divided by 11 weeks equals 90,900 units. The Lumia 900 has been on sale for 2 weeks, so that would mean AT&T sold a hair over 180,000 units.

That’s considered great?

  • Anonymous

    More than likely it’s because the carriers are not really ‘selling’ the devices. Nokia themselves have come out and said that they are having issues with resellers. Independent news researchers have also shown sales staff are not even showing the Lumia even when requested. Sounds like a boycott to me, and it doesn’t matter if you have the best device in the world, if you have no bargaining power over the carrier, they become the king makers.

  • Dcruzn51

    do anyone know how they will adminiter the $100 credit. I’ve just talked to AT&T on the phone and they have no clue about it

    • From what I’ve heard, it’ll just show up on your bill.

      • GuestPoster

        they said it will take approximately 90 days

  • Hater’s gonna hate.  Specially when hater’s wrong. 

  • Batu Pahat One

    The apple fanboys and android fangirls will be very pleased to read about this, esp the last statement “That’s considered great?”

  • i ph one

    Lumia 900 will sell around 3 million in US and 7 million totally in Q2. Q3 will be even better

  • Anonymous

    @stefan_intomobile:disqus “That’s considered great?”
    Yes, it is. AT&T just announced their Q1 results and in that quarter AT&T sold 5.5 million smartphones. Of that 5.5 million, 4.3 were iPhones. That leaves 1.2 million for non-iPhone samrtphones; Android, Blackberry, Windows Phone, et al. So 1 million in a quarter at AT&T would be a great start.

  • If AT&T sells a million and Nokia has delayed UK Lumia 900 launch by 2 weeks until May 14th then how many Lumia 900 could Nokia sell in Q2 2012 world wide? 2-3 million? Lumia 900 sales of 2-3 million plus Lumia 610 sales could just drive Nokia Windows Phones sales to 4-5 milion for Q2 2012. Now that’s not the 35 million iPhones that Apple sold in Q1 2012 but it is starting to gain traction and people are starting to notice.  

  • Rk

    This author has been fired from nokia and thats why trying to bullshit about nokia !! Unofficially it is clear that nokia has already sold over 1 million lumia 900.

  • guest

    I estimate that 2 million  lumia units will be sold in North America, another 2 millions will come from europe and in asia it will reach 2-3 mil, so altogether we’ll see 6 million lumias out to the wild in Q2.

    • it is also selling in Mexico, a lot of people are getting it for 600 dollars

  • Dumped the iphone for it and I must say it is far better.

  • Anonymous

    i would say so. i mean your talking about a phone that may or may not be updated to win8 in 90 days. That is a pretty good roll of the dice. i mean if you were going to buy a windows phone with it being so close to win8 why not wait. Also GSIII and iphone 5 will roll in next 2 months that will also add to the why not wait and see.

    So ya all things considered I would say 1 million units in the wild is pretty awesome. Also probably would equal 10-20% of the US install base.

    Units aside. If you said samsung G3 will represent a total of  20% of android phones in a quarter you would would say that is a kick arse launch.

  • Anonymous

    what Alfred replied I’m amazed that some people can profit $6887 in 1 month on the internet. have you read this site link ==>> 

  • Anonymous

    I think the issue here, is that the desperation from both Microsoft and Nokia is palatable–both need a home run and they’re both trying to spin their way towards it. I haven’t seen the Lumina yet, but the initial reviews from Dave Pogue of the NYTimes and Walt Mossberg of the Wall St. Journal have been positive and balanced. I personally think that Nokia made a big mistake by dumping Symbian and throwing their hat completely in w/Microsoft. Now, whenever Nokia comes up w/an innovation, they have to wait for MSFT to write the code to enable its functionality. How crazy is that? And, to top it off, you know that MSFT is going to make that functionality available to other phone manufacturers who sign up for Windows 8. So, the question is, where does Nokia create differentiation or innovation if they’re reliant upon a third party to enable it? 

  • John

    The only issue facing Microsoft and Nokia is apps…everybody likes apps and until WP7 gets all of the popular ones, it will continue to flounder. :/

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