Is Windows Phone 8 already dead on arrival?

Paul Thurrott is to Microsoft what John Gruber is to Apple. By that I mean he’s been championing the desktop software giant since the 1990s. He recently wrote a piece on The Supersite for Windows where he outlined how Windows Phone 8 might land straight on its face due to the following reasons: First, Windows Phone hasn’t penetrated the market. It has a market share of less than 2% and it’ll be a miracle if that number doubles by the end of this year. That figure makes developers hesitant to build applications for the platform, because what’s the point if all the money is in iOS and all the volume is in Android? Second, with Windows Phone 8, Microsoft is going to deprecate the development tools that today’s Windows Phone developers currently use. Silverlight and XNA are going to be thrown out and replaced with WinRT, the same kernel that powers Windows 8. The problem is that the Windows Phone 8 WinRT-based APIs aren’t exactly the same as the WinRT-based APIs in Windows 8, so that’ll create some confusion. Third, Android is growing at an exponential rate, and at this point it looks like the market prefers having a two horse race rather than having a viable third competitor.

What’s more disconcerting is that Windows Phone 8 is essentially yet another reboot of Microsoft’s mobile operating operating system. The company killed Windows Mobile to give birth to Windows Phone back in 2010, and now they’re going to kill Windows Phone again and usher in a new platform that’ll retain the Windows Phone name, though under the hood it’ll be completely different.

Here’s a suggestion should someone from Microsoft be reading this: People love XBOX because while it is a Microsoft product, that fact isn’t rubbed in their faces. Create a new brand for your mobile effort. Call it Metro or something, but keep Windows out of the spotlight.

  • Stewe

    Why is this guy crying with his mouth wide open??

    • my co-worker’s step-sister makes $64/hr on the laptop. She has been without work for five months but last month her pay was $13802 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Read more here CashLazy.c&#111m

    • Bongo

       luba looo!!

  • damy

    Strange, I read that all wp7 will continue running on wp8. Also now all developers creating apps for windows 8 (that’s going to be big) will easily port their apps to wp8. Also it allows c++ developers to port their apps. A lot of iOS and Android developers can now port their apps as well. 

  • Anonymous

    Another dink trying to grab views with a contentious headline.

  • capo tini

    I really can’t figure what is the hate thing about a brand…there are million of people, android had a slow start, and only in the 3rd year it had boosted itself. Android as so many iterations so different that cause fragmentation, and google is always changing the API’ guess windows phone is still better for developers! Windows Phone is good could be better but please keep it simple…don’t read this bullshit that media put to fire things up

  • mobile phone enthusiast my @$$

    Apparently this “mobile phone enthusiast who lives and breathes devices that connect to the internet” is only interested in a couple types of mobile phones. $10,000 says this guy has never even picked up windows phone, much less done actual research on it. Gartner forcasted that WP would pass iPhone in mobile market share by 2015. While that is still yet to be determined, this guy clearly doesn’t pay attention to what the industry experts are saying.

    • Here’s my Lumia 800 review:

      Where’s my $10,000?

      • Anonymous

        Stefan, you’re hardly doing yourself a favour by referring to your bitterness-laden bashing of Nokia as a review. Please start taking your role seriously and write pieces that are more informed and objective than this fanboy-soaked pulp.

      • na

        You are a complete TOOL and I mean the kind that sits in the back of the garden shed and never gets sharpened or used! Get a life, then after that… Get a WP8 phone and quit being a hater you moron!

  • When it comes to anything Windows Phone related, Stefan’s opinion is DOA.  5 minutes of research would have kept him from looking like a complete tool, yet here this article sits, like a turd on my screen. 
    And if he does reply to these comments, it will be with all of the pompous asshattery that most iFans exude like pus. 
    Keep writing, Stefan. Idiots like you will always make me feel better about myself.   

  • Rawar2377

    Please man, if you are a fan boy of android only write about android. I know a lot of people that are in contracts right now that will be making the switch soon. When I pull out my phone everyone is always jumps on it.. Every body that touches it loves it

  • Anonymous

    “Android is growing at an exponential rate…”
    Sorry, no its not growing at an exponential rate. Looking at StatCounter’s chart, Android’s growth is clearly not exponential. The chart from Jan 2011 to now shows more of a logarithmic growth.

    “It has a market share of less than 2% and it’ll be a miracle if that number doubles by the end of this year”
    In Europe, since Jan 2012, Windows Phone has doubled from 0.67% to 1.27% week ending may 13, 2012. In the US since Jan, 0.76% to now 1.1% with a later release of the Lumia line compared to Europe. So yes Windows Phone could double its share.
    Also, looking at Blackberry’s chart in the US, Windows Phone could surpass Blackberry by Oct, considering WP growth and Blackberry’s slide downward.

  • all i want to say is give windows phone some time. It has been launched in US just a couple of months back. I mean what do u expect?? Suddenly windows phone will grab 10% market share in a month?? So if u are an intelligent person give it some time. Also it’s been launched at a highly competitive time so wait for a while. It takes time for a new OS to gain attention.

  • I hope the writer is incorrect about the future success of Windows Phone. I personally beleive the UI in windows phone makes it far cleaner and easier to navigate than both iOS and Android. I think if windows would put a little more effort into marketing and advertising that WIndows Phone would begin to pick up some momentum. I absolutely love my Samsung focus and even with the iPhone 4S’ new retina display the amazingly vivid and bright colors in Samsungs Super AMOLED display make the windows phone display much prettier. Windows Phones usually loose the specification battle but I think for most users the UI is what matters. I don’t understand why Windows Phone isn’t more successful.

    Regarding the change to WinRT, this upsets me greatly. I was just learning C#, XNA, and Silverlight to build for WP7. I am considering ditching Windows phone altogether and developing for Android. I was actually thinking about learning C++ and DirectX to develop for WP8 and W8 but I would essentially be throwing away most of what I’ve learned over the past several months. I am admitingly a Microsoft fanboy and have been since I was about 14 years old. It is really upsetting and disappointing to witness some of the decisions being made by Microsoft. I still hope they are eventually successful with WP8 and W8. But this rollercoaster ride is getting old fast.

    • FYI, WinRT is XAML based.  In other words, it’s Silverlight’s cousin, though likely a bit more powerful.  As a Silverlight / WPF developer with some exposure to WinRT, I can tell you the learning curve is quite low.  C++ and DirectX?  Where on earth did you get the impression that you would be required to use those to develop for WP8?  I also read that it will be *possible* to develop with them, but it is by no means required.  They will simply open the door to a new breed of applications.  Last I checked, that’s a good thing.

      • NAH


  • Gues

    If you don’t like Windows Phone,  then thats your issue.  But don’t use your mouthpiece to claim doom and gloom when other people are looking forward to Windows Phone 8. 

    BTW I tried Android and IPhone before and like Windows Phone better.  I look forward to porting my apps from XNA to the new SDK.

    • Anonymous

       Nobody is looking forward to Windows 8 or Windows Phone 8.

      • Nobody looking forward to Windows 8 or Windows Phone 8….from a guy that calls him self trollengine. 

      • Anonymous

        What purpose does being a troll serve? Are you a big d!ck in person, or is this just your online persona?

  • Nhrones

    His last senrence says it all …

       “Create a new brand for your mobile effort. Call it Metro or something, but keep Windows out of the spotlight.”

    You see, Stafan would like anything … good or bad … as long as it didn’t have Microsoft attached.  Talk about being completely jaded …
    As a long time Microsoft developer with extensive WP7 experience, I can tell you for certain that for Windows-8 and for Windows-Phone-8, C# and .net are still viable developer tools.

  • Josiah Grindrod

    Very Classy, Stefan, to delete my comment and then ban my Twitter from the site.  Did I touch a nerve by pointing out your obvious bias/hate?  Let’s see if you delete this one too. 

  • You just don’t get it ! Windows phone is the next big thing. All it needs now is some time.

  • Anonymous

    geee gotta love all the rabid microsoft fanbois…………………….they are the worst by far.

    As is usual they keep telling us the next big thing is just round the corner.

    I think its a fair and probably accurate article. So just deal with it and stop hatin.

    • All three OS’s have awful fanbois. They may seem the worst to you because your a hater. Dont get confused bud. Their are apple fanbois that suck, android fanbois that suck, and winphone fanbois that suck. Also, judging by your comment, you probably suck as well.

  • Yesterday I took a trip to an AT&T store and played with the lumia 900. Being a tmobile customer, I wanted to switch to AT&T that day. Only problem is I have already tried AT&T and well….I hated them. If this phone was released on verizon I would make the switch today. What frustrates me is that nobody will give this phone a chance. It is simply the most beautiful phone ive ever had in my hand. Not a iFanboy by any means but ill give credit where credits due, the iPhone has wonderful hardware. I would rather have the polycarbonate design just because i want a more durable answer to glass. it felt wonderful in the hand, the screen was gorgeous and the buttons felt fantastic. The FFC was amazing as well. Overall, just an outstanding design. Not asking people to go out and buy it, keep your androids and iPhones if thats what you like, just check it out without a biased opinion. I promise you will find at least one thing you enjoy.  

    • Anonymous

       There’s still one BIG con: Windows.

  • Folks this is the best time for Windows Phone 8 to come because 2% of the market phones users may be hurt the OS has Changed is better than if there were a lot more windows smart phone Owners. Now Microsoft can better advertise their new Windows 8 smart phones make sur they do not make the Mistakes they Made when Windows Phone 7 series came out.. The first thing Microsoft has to do is flood the Newspapers and magazines  with information about the why and How Metro tiles are designed the way they are some People think they are ugly in fact a Windows smart phone should stay on the Pretty loch screen until you touch it to use the windows smart and go automatically back to the pretty Lock screen after you finish using an APP or when you stop using an APP for so many minutes. since metro tiles are gointo to be a part of all Windows operating systems on various computer form factors Microsoft has to educate
    the Public how to use and work with them. in fact MICROSOFT SHOULD GIVE EVERY NEW
    WINDOWS 8 Computer a DVD that tells them how to use it more effectively because People are going to get lost when thy first encounter a Windows 8 Metro Computer screen. Windows 8 coulf be another Vista if Microsoft does not educate People about how to work with metro tiles in computers laptops servers and tablet computers

    • You are obviously not in marketing. The XBOX is a brand that did well for Windows, and no one is confused; the users perceive it as Windows’ cooler younger nephew. I think Windows is trying so hard to attract an audience, but the real opportunity is to chip away at Blackberry’s business and acquire more enterprise business…. After all nearly every major company runs Windows.

  • Reality:  Wimdows is NOT an excitement inducing name.

    Windows Phone 7 market share of 1.7% proves that.

  • Anonymous

    Windows Phone is as exciting as eating sand.

    • I doubt you have used a Windows Phone.  If you had you would understand why Windows Phone users enjoy using it.

      • Stewe


  • Winodws phone 8 is doing right thing by junking Sliverlight and other  XNA and going for WInRT which will also support C++. With Silverlight and XNA, windows phone was becoming B team compared to Android which also uses sluggish Java allowing IOS to reap benefit of pure C++ performance though at unsustainable premium. If Windows Phone 8 team gets their act right (do not get carried away by Microsoft monopoly in vanishing desktop market forcing stupid tools on developers who can easliy flock to Android/IOS) with Nokia which is still Wolrd No 2 in mobiles, Microsoft can again get 30-40% market share in smartphone market over next two years at expense of Android and Blackberry though Apple share at 19% is likely to continue with reduction in premium commanded by it. Lumia 900 is already getting rave reviews only one wishes Microsoft does not again change its fickle mind after acquisition of Nokia and gets into old mistakes.

  • sidjfghn

    So it’s been almost a year since this article was written and windows 8 still has lees market share than Vista did or currently does. So why are Microsoft and all the paid shills on the forums still trying to tell everyone who doesn’t like it that they are wrong
    and it is better than Windows 7?

    Key problems with windows 8 (desktop/phone/RT) is that it’s horribly ugly. It’s got a look that only a color blind interior designer type could like. It’s terribly inefficient on a desktop. IT doesn’t play well with windows 7 programs/games. IE 10 doesn’t work with just about anything (I had to revert back to IE 9 due to all the problems IE10 has).

    Seriously, what does Windows 8 do better that Windows 7? Booting faster doesn’t mean anything when you only reboot your computer once per month at the most (and it was not noticeably faster than windows 7 in my tests).

    Is Microsoft suicidal? Only a complete idiot would ignore what 90% of their user base is telling them. Microsoft needs to do some serious house cleaning starting with their upper management if they want to survive the next 10 years. I don’t think that the desktop computer is dead, I just think that no one wants the mess that is windows 8 is and it’s stopping them from buying new computers.

    As for phones, what did I think was the best? I loved my Samsung Omnia II. I used the SPB mobile shell on top of the 6.5 OS and it was brilliant. The apps we much better quality than anything I’ve found on my android phone and everything just worked better. If I could find a new phone using the 6.5 OS (and it was still supported) I would buy it over any other phone on the market.

    I’m not a Microsoft hater, in fact I used to be a huge fan (I still am with windows 7), but I cannot tolerate blind stupidity and with windows 8 Microsoft is being nothing but stupid.

Back to top ▴