The boffins at Juniper Research have predicted that by 2014, 1 in 6 mobile phone subscribers will be using an NFC device. Whether or not they’ll be using NFC for something other than transmitting naughty pictures and business cards is another story all together. Juniper Research also thinks that in 2014, NFC enabled monetary transactions will exceed $110 billion. If we assume that there are 4 billion mobile subscribers now, and that number will hit 5 billion by 2014, then that would be roughly 833 million people (1 in 6) spending an average of $132 during a 12 month period. That’s roughly the population of the USA and the EU combined, buying a $5 meal at McDonald’s every other week.

Do you think they’re being a tad too optimistic? I am, but then again I tend to stay away from predicting what will happen more than 3 years into the future. At the rate the world is moving, 2014 may as well be a millennium away.

[Via: Business Wire]

In its new report titled “Mobile Coupons & NFC Smart Posters: Strategies, Applications & Forecasts 2009-2014,” Juniper Research forecasts that consumer usage of mobile coupons will generate close to $6 billion globally in retail redemption value by 2014.

However, the research company warns about stumbling blocks the industry faces: apathy amongst the wider public, and the lack of willingness to learn a new method of making financial transactions. Juniper goes on suggesting that smart posters with embedded NFC tags will bring to life static billboards, enabling interaction between potential customers and their prospective purchases.

Further findings from the report include:

• ARPU from NFC coupons and smart posters will exceed ARPU from NFC payment transactions;
• The vast majority of mobile coupon redemption value will be generated by the Far East & China, Western Europe and North America in 2014.

As usual, more information about the report is available from Juniper’s website.

The economy, which is experiencing either a recession, or depression depending on who you ask, is starting to look better, but make no mistake, a lot of people are still hurting and will continue to hurt for a few more years. It’s surprising then that in the midst of all this belt tightening and frugal spending that in Q3 2009 smartphone sales broke a record. IDC says that 43.3 million smartphones shipped last quarter, while Canalys says 41.4 million, either way, they both conclude that this has been the best quarter, ever, for converged devices. Here are the numbers:

Manufacturer – (IDC) – (Canalys):

• Nokia (NYSE: NOK) – (16.4 million) – (16.4 million)
• RIM – (8.2 million) – (8.5 million)
• Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) – (7.4 million) – (7.36 million)
• HTC – (2.4 million) – (2.18 million)
• Others (8.8 million) – (6.9 million)

In terms of growth as a percentage, IDC says RIM shot up 35.7% year on year, while Canalys reports 40.8%. Apple and Nokia are growing at roughly the same rate year on year, IDC says Nokia grew 6.6% while Apple achieved 7.1% growth, and Canalys is saying Nokia grew 6%, while Apple did marginally better at 6.7%. In terms of market share, Nokia is still number one: IDC is saying 37.9% and Canalys saying is 39.7%, both are higher than the 35% Nokia quoted themselves as having during their Q3 2009 financial conference call.

Mind share is another story all together, but to quote Steve Ballmer: “At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter what the critics say, it matters what the customers say.”

We dig the idea of falling smartphone prices. ABI Research has been following the market and they say that in 2007 only 18% of these devices were priced under $200 retail. This year, however, that percentage went up to 27%, and by 2014 the research company predicts 45% of them [smartphones] will be priced below $200.

According to ABI, these numbers show changing consumers’ attitudes toward smartphones, and a corresponding shift in vendors’ and mobile operators’ sales and marketing strategies which ultimately lead to the current situation where we have more and more smartphones and conventional (feature) phones being priced in similar ranges.

ABI also points out that some smartphones are never subsidized (i.e. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) in the U.S.), but increasingly manufacturers want to see their higher end models reach high volumes of sales.

ABI’s mobile devices practice director Kevin Burden said: “Prices will hold at a certain point. We may never see a $30 smartphone. But over time, smartphones will take a substantial part of the mainstream handset market.”

More information about ABI Research’s new “Smartphone and OS Markets” report is available from their website.

Analysts at Canalys (does that rhyme?) conducted a survey with over 3,000 people spread out over France, Germany and the United Kingdom to find out how large of an impact touch screen devices are having on Western Europe. The results speak for themselves: 38% want their next mobile phone to be finger touch enabled and 16% want their next device to be stylus enabled. That’s 54% of people who have simply had it with a regular T9 keypad and 5 way directional pad.

What about the people who are taking this survey and already have touch screen devices? Of those individuals (percentage not given) only 47% wanted their next mobile device to be touch enabled, which leads me to believe that buying into the touch screen hype and building a terrible user interface is almost as toxic as not making a touch screen model at all. Those with Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) and HTC devices are the most likely to buy another touch device, while those with Sony Ericsson (NYSE: SNE) touch devices are the least likely to buy a touch screen again. The people most eager to buy a touch screen device? Men between the ages of 22 and 45. The people who least want a finger based touch enabled device? People who currently use stylus based devices.

Which side of the argument do you sit on? I’m still pounding away on buttons with my Nokia (NYSE: NOK) E71.

In its latest report, ABI Research argues that consumers will buy more 3G modems than businesses for the first time. The research company anticipates that in 2010, 51% of these modems (mostly USB) will ship into the consumer segment, and by 2014 that percentage is expected to rise to 63%.

ABI continues adding that although notebooks and netbooks will increasingly feature embedded modem modules, penetration will remain slow in the near-term. To prove the point ABI points to 2009 figures when less than 5% of laptops and netbooks has shipped/will ship with embedded modems. However over the long-term, the attachment rates will reach significant levels and in 2014, 48% of laptops and netbooks will come with 3G or 4G data connectivity.

In addition, there’s one important factor that will shape the market in the mid-term – roll-out of mobile WiMAX and LTE networks during 2011 and 2012, which will create demand to upgrade to compatible modems…

Additional details on ABI Research’s report titled “Cellular Modems and Mobile Broadband Connectivity” are available from their website.

Opera Software is out with their monthly “State of the Mobile Web” report and we bring you some cool highlights:

• You know Opera Mini works through proxy server that compresses data and sends you the user more bandwidth friendly version of the site. Well, thanks to that compression, Opera Software said that their mobile web browser has saved their users in top ten countries approximately $8.1 billion in mobile data costs! It’s important to note that this survey reflects metered rates only, not flat-rate subscription options.
• In September 2009, more than 35.6 million people used Opera Mini, an 11.5% increase from August 2009 and more than 150% compared to September 2008. These people viewed 15 billion pages in the period – 7.2% increase since August and 230% since September of last year. In terms of data usage, September 2009 accounted for nearly 227 million MB of data for operators worldwide.
• The top 10 countries for Opera Mini usage are (in order): Russia, Indonesia, India, China, Ukraine, South Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Poland and Vietnam.

As usual, you can get the full report from Opera’s website.

ABI Research forecasts that ultra mobile devices (UMD) — which they say include Ultra Mobile PCs, netbooks, MIDs and some other mobile consumer electronics devices — will achieve a 385 million unit size in 2014.

The research company’s senior analyst Jeff Orr says that as uptake continues, developing markets will become the larger opportunity leveraging ARM-based, Linux-powered devices. The premium netbook category will also be established with larger screens and greater choices in connectivity solutions.

Orr also added that pocketable MIDs remain a far more interesting product segment to watch, as the market is still emerging. We have pure tablet-shaped devices, as well as models with sliding keyboards. “However, there is a danger that the MID market will disappear before it gets the chance to mature, as smartphones increase in popularity and mimic most if not all tasks performed by MIDs,” he added.

In addition, ABI says that the lines are blurring between MIDs and smartphones with the addition of voice capabilities. Nokia (NYSE: NOK)’s N900 was not surprisingly pointed as a prime example… More information about ABI’s findings is available from their website.

A short month after announcing 85,000 apps in the iTunes store, recent metrics are hinting that Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) has approved over 100,000 applications for the iPhone (although only about 93,000 are currently available for download). All jokes about the proliferation of fart apps aside, the rate of growth and activity in the iPhone’s app market is nothing short of meteoric and has had many other manufacturers scrambling to get their own application stores up and running. While iTunes might be the original, it’s quickly becoming oversaturated; that’s good news for internal competition, but it does have a lot of developers looking to burgeoning on-device markets like webOS, Android, and BlackBerry (NSDQ: RIMM) where they’ll have an easier time to make a name for themselves. In any case, good on iPhone for reaching this landmark, and developers, keep ‘em coming.

[via Mashable]

Soccer moms, move over, your time is over. It’s time to make room for the “iPhone Mom” – a relatively new demographic made up of female iPhone owners with children. A new survey from Greystripe indicates that the usually slow-to-adopt “mommy” segment has quickly become a significant consumer of mobile content and mobile applications. As a key purchase decision maker in most US households, sometimes the sole decision maker, the iPhone Mom could prove to be the most important demographic to advertisers.

Greystripe found that a typical iPhone Mom is 7% more likely to be African-American, but 5% less likely to be Hispanic, than the typical iPhone user in general. They wield a lot of purchasing-power in their homes – 96% are involved in purchase decisions, with 40% indicating that they alone decide what their family buys. And, these iPhone Moms use their iPhones for a variety of daily activities – 59% let their kids use their iPhone; 79% use their iPhone to keep their daily shopping duties organized, with 60% using it to locate a nearby store; and a healthy 42% of iPhone Moms use their iPhone at the grocery store. To top it all off, they’re an educated bunch – fully 80% of iPhone Moms have completed a an undergrad stint in college.

What do all these numbers mean for the typical iPhone user? Well, if advertisers take this iPhone market analysis to heart, you might soon see in-app and other types of mobile advertising catering to the iPhone Mom segment.

Check out Greystripe’s full report here [PDF link].

[Via: webwire]